August 22, 2007

 

Western Australia's CBH concerned over winter wheat output
 

 

Concerns are mounting about whether Western Australia's winter crops including wheat will meet only modest production forecasts, despite light rains in some areas in recent weeks.

 

Logistics concern Cooperative Bulk Handling Ltd., or CBH, has tightened its estimated intake range from the crop to be harvested November or December to 6 million to 9 million tonnes from 5 million to 9 million tonnes a month ago, CBH operations manager Michael Musgrave said Wednesday (Aug 22).

 

"We've firmed up the range but are less confident about the top end right now unless we have a significant rainfall event," Musgrave said by telephone from CBH's headquarters in Perth.

 

"Throughout the wheat growing areas, the crops need a drink," he added.

 

The company's intake in the drought-affected last crop year ending Mar 31 was 6.2 million tonnes, well down from a longer-term annual average of 11.1 million tonnes and barely 40 percent of a peak of almost 15 million tonnes in 2003/04.

 

About 70 percent of state grain output is usually wheat, nearly all of which is available for export. CBH owns and operates the state's only network of inland storage silos and four export terminals.

 

Predictions for shire-level wheat yields for 2007 are well below average for the northern third of Western Australia's growing areas and also through much of its eastern districts, according to a national climate and agricultural update issued Tuesday by the federal government's Bureau of Rural Sciences.

 

CBH's outlook is broadly consistent with forecasts last week by the state government's Department of Agriculture, whose current projection for new crop wheat is 5.6 million tonnes, down from 5.8 million tonnes in July.

 

New crop barley is forecast at 1.9 million tonnes, compared with 2.0 million tonnes in July, while total estimated production from winter crops is 8.9 million tonnes, down from 9.2 million tonnes in July.

 

Musgrave said crops in the northern Geraldton zone and south-east Esperance zone suffered some poor weather in July and August.

 

Temperatures soared Saturday around Geraldton to 29 deg C, with the area then missing expected rain Sunday, he said.

 

Even an average increase in temperatures around Geraldton during spring will likely stress crops, which are green but a month behind normal development and only ankle-high, he said.

 

"You wouldn't be confident they're going to have any significant crop," he said.

 

"We need mild weather conditions for the finish of this season and we just don't know we're going to get that," he added.

 

Around Esperance, crops enjoyed what was described as an excellent start to the season, but then missed out on rains in July, likely limiting yields, he said.

 

As usual, most crops in the state will come from the central Kwinana and southern Albany regions.