August 21, 2025

 

PRRS outbreaks prompt USDA to lower US pork production outlook 

 

 

The US Department of Agriculture has lowered its 2025 pork production forecast, citing slower slaughter rates and lighter dressed weights in the second half of the year.

 

Output is now projected at 27.7 billion pounds, down 1% from the July estimate.

 

July estimated federally inspected hog slaughter was also considerably lower than the June Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report's calculation, at 10.2 million heads, a 3.9% dip from July 2024 FI slaughter numbers. USDA Economic Research Service Agricultural Economists Mildred Haley and Adriana Valcu-Lisman attribute the reduction in hog numbers to unusually high rates of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRSV) in the second quarter, continuing into June.

 

"The Swine Health Information Centre presented information in its August newsletter indicating that the second quarter of 2025 marked the highest number of PRRSV outbreaks in the wean-to-market segment of the US hog sector since 2013," stated Haley and Valcu-Lisman. "The publication notes further that the number of diagnosed PRRSV cases in the second quarter of 2025 was among the highest on record."

 

According to the USDA ERS Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook for August 2025, estimated average dressed weights last month were also slightly lower than the year prior, as producers responded to higher hog prices by marketing hogs at lower weights. Total FI (Federally Inspected) pork production in July came in at 2.2 billion pounds, a 4% reduction from 2024.

 

"Lower pork supplies and strong demand for reduced supplies of animal proteins supported both hog prices and wholesale pork prices in July. Prices of national live equivalent producer sold hogs averaged US$78.20 per hundredweight (cwt) in July, almost 16% higher than a year ago. The wholesale value of the composite pork carcass in July was US$115.03 per cwt more than 15% higher than in July 2024, with the belly primal making the largest contribution to the year-over-year increase in the cutout value," the authors noted.

 

Q3 production is expected to decline 140 million pounds to 6.8 billion pounds, slightly lower than a year prior. Average national live equivalent producer sold hog prices for the third quarter are projected to reach US$77 per cwt, more than 17% higher than prices in Q3 2024. Fourth quarter production has been reduced to 7.3 billion pounds, but still 1.6% higher than a year ago. Q4 hog prices are anticipated at $67 per cwt, 6.5% higher than prices fourth quarter last year.

 

For 2026, total production is forecast at 28.4 billion pounds, a 2.3% increase compared to 2025. Hog prices next year are expected to average US$65.50 per cwt, about 5.5% below prices forecast for this year.

 

As for pork exports, 552 million pounds of US pork shipped in June, with Mexico leading the way at 230 million pounds, a 22% jump from 2024. This volume alone accounted for 42% of US pork shipments that month.

 

Total Q2 exports came in at 1.699 billion pounds, down 4% from the same period in 2024.

 

"Lower exports in the quarter are largely attributable to strong pork prices in the United States due to lower production of both pork and beef. Consequently, US pork lost a degree of competitiveness in international markets, particularly to pork produced in Brazil and the European Union," noted Haley and Valcu-Lisman.

 

Total exports in 2025 are expected to finish at 6.98 billion pounds, 2% lower than 2024. With Q3 and Q4 forecasts unchanged from last month, 25.2% of US commercial pork production is projected to be exported in 2025.

 

2026 exports are forecast at 7 billion pounds, just 0.3% higher than the 2025 estimate. With 2026 commercial production and export projections, the authors expect just 24.7% of US pork production to be exported next year.

 

-      National Hog Farmer