August 21, 2007
US to remain top pork exporter next decade while Brazil surpasses EU
The US, the world's largest pork exporter currently, could expect to retain its title as the world's top pork exporter over the next 10 years, according to the latest Agricultural Outlook, produced by the FAO and OECD.
The report also predicts that the US share of global pork exports will approach 30 percent by 2016.
The past 15 years of record-breaking US pork exports have supported growth in the industry, and this trend is expected to continue through the next decade, the report said.
Meanwhile, US pork exports have grown from 7 percent of production in 2000 to more than 15 percent today. By 2016, one-fifth of US pork production would be slated for exports.
The weak US dollar, relative to currencies from other competitors such as the Euro and the Canadian dollar, has stimulated demand for US pork.
Meanwhile, the EU-27, the second largest pork exporter, may be surpassed by fast growing Brazilian pork exports by 2016.
Growth in domestic demand, rising costs and environmental and animal welfare regulations are expected to slow EU pork exports.
The share of pork exports from the EU-27 in global markets is expected to drop to 18 percent from the current 26 percent and only 5 percent of production would be exported by 2016.
EU-27 production and consumption remain relatively stable. Production is expected to increase 3.2 percent, to be matched by a 3-percent increase in consumption during the period.
Brazil's ascendancy to the second largest pork exporter would be very much dependant on whether diseases such as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) would once again impede export growth.
Still, Brazil is expected to export more than a quarter of its production and have 18 percent of the global pork export market share by 2016.
Canadian exports in 2016 are expected to be 2 percent lower from its current levels. Exports are also expected to account for less of production, falling to 36 percent from 46 percent currenctly.
Canada's share of global exports is expected to fall from 20 percent in 2006 to 15.6 percent in 2016 as the industry is not expected to recover from recent losses due to the strong Canadian dollar and high labour and feed costs.
Japan would remain the top pork-importer, accounting for one-quarter of global pork imports. Other major pork importing countries would be Russia at 11 percent, Mexico at 8 percent and South Korea at 5 percent of global pork exports.
The pork titans of 2016