August 20, 2024

International Grains Council cuts 2024/25 forecast for global wheat output as France survives bad wheat harvest

The International Grains Council (IGC) has trimmed its forecast for 2024/25 global wheat production driven largely by a downward revision for France which has just endured one of the worst wheat harvests in decades.

The inter-governmental body, in its monthly update on August 15, forecast global wheat output at 799 million metric tons, down from a previous projection of 801 million tonnes although still above the prior season's 794 million tonnes.

France's wheat crop was put at 27.5 million tonnes, down from 31.0 million tonnes seen previously and sharply below the prior season's 36.3 million tonnes.

The impact was partially offset by an upward revision for Ukraine's wheat crop to 25.4 million tonnes from 23.4 million tonnes although it remains down on the prior season's 28.4 million tonnes.

The IGC also marginally increased its 2024/25 world corn crop outlook by one million tonnes to 1.226 billion tonnes.

The United States, the world's top producer, was seen harvesting 384.7 million tonnes, up from 379.2 million tonnes previously projected, although smaller crops were expected in Romania (8.5 million tonnes versus a prior forecast of 10.9 million tonnes) and Russia (13.7 million tonnes versus 15.0 million tonnes).

Global soybean production raised to 419 million tonnes, up from a previous forecast of 415 million tonnes and sharply above the prior season's 392 million tonnes.

"A record global (soybean) outturn is expected in 2024/25, with sizeable crops likely in all leading producers," the IGC said in a report.

- Reuters