August 19, 2013

Russia lowers 2013-14 grain forecast to 90 million tonnes

In the 2013-14 farm year (July 2013-June 2014), the Russian Agriculture Ministry has slashed its grain harvest forecast to 90 million tonnes from 95 million tonnes previously.

It has also revised the grain export forecast to 18 million-20 million tonnes. The previous forecast said grain exports would total 20 million tonnes.

"Given production of 90 million tonnes of grain, exports may total 18 million-20 million tonnes," the head of the ministry's department for regulating the agricultural market, Mikhail Orlov, said.

The total grain resource this year will amount to 97.9 million tonnes, including 7.2 million tonnes in inventories as of the beginning of the year and 0.7 million tonnes in imports. Domestic grain consumption will amount to 70.1 million tonnes. That results in a grain export potential of 18 million-20 million tonnes, Orlov said.

Drought reduced Russia's grain harvest to 70.9 million tonnes in 2012, down from 94.2 million tonnes in 2011. Russia exported 15.7 million tonnes of grain last year, down from 27.1 million tonnes the previous year.