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August 19, 2009
Global soy prices to stay firm amid looming US crop
Global sot prices are likely to stay firm medium-term despite a looming large US crop as Chinese and other import demand is high and key South American supplies tight, oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday (Aug 18).
Oil World said market speculation of a record US soy crop will probably be fulfilled, but hopes for downward price pressure among soy consumers are likely to be disappointed as a large US crop will be urgently needed to compensate for this year's disappointing Argentine and Brazilian crops.
It said Sept-Feb 2009-10 will be an extremely difficult period for the soy market, adding that the scarcity of South American supplies relative to usage will probably be unprecedented, making the coverage of demand a real challenge for US crushers and exporters.
US September 2009 to February 2010 soy exports are forecast by Oil World to rise sharply to 28.50 million tonnes from 23.79 million tonnes in the same year-ago period.
It forecasts US September 2009 to February 2010 soy crushings to rise to 25.90 million tonnes from 22.93 million tonnes, which would cut US soy stocks at end-Feburary 2010 to 33-34 million tonnes, down 3-4 million tonnes on the year.