August 18, 2025

 

US loses China soybean sales to Brazil in peak supply months 

 

 

US soybean exporters are losing billions in potential sales to China this year, as prolonged trade talks push the world's top oilseed importer to secure Brazilian cargoes for delivery during the crucial US marketing season, traders say.

 

Chinese importers have finished booking soybean cargoes for September, taking around 8 million metric tonnes, all from South America, three traders said.

 

For October, Chinese buyers have secured about four million tonnes—half of their expected requirement—also from South America, traders said.

 

"China's heavy Q3 soybean purchases suggest the industry has built up inventories ahead of potential Q4 supply risks," said Wang Shen, an analyst at Sublime China Information.

 

Last year, Chinese oilseed importers bought around 7 million tonnes from the US for shipments during the two months.

 

The risk of prolonged absence of Chinese purchases for the US crop year starting in September amid unresolved trade tensions could app pressure on Chicago futures trading not far from five-year lows, traders said.

 

Typically, most Chinese purchases of US soybeans are shipped between September and January, before Brazilian supplies take over after South America's harvest.

 

Chinese buyers are expected to complete this year's October bookings by early next month, said a trader at an international firm in Singapore.

 

There could be some room for US to sell soybeans towards the end of 2025 or early next year, but volumes are likely to be limited if tariffs remain.

 

"The consensus is that Brazil won't have enough beans, when all is said and done, to satisfy China's import requirements," said Terry Reilly, senior agricultural strategist for Marex.

 

"So there's going to be a shortfall late in the season. On a Brazilian crop year basis, they may fall short by about two to five million tonnes."

 

China has been cutting its dependence on US agricultural products since the trade war under President Donald Trump's first term.

 

Last year, China imported roughly 105 million metric tonnes of soybeans. Of that, 22.13 million tonnes came from the US, worth US$12 billion.

 

On Sunday, Trump urged China to quadruple its soybean purchases ahead of a tariff truce deadline, a target that analysts said was unfeasible as it would require China to buy almost exclusively from the US.

 

The next day, the two sides extended their tariff truce by 90 days.

 

However, three traders told Reuters the extension by itself was unlikely to spur purchases, as Beijing's tariff on US soybean imports remains at 23% -- making them uncompetitive.

 

China could resume buying US soybeans if an agreement to reduce its duties is reached.

 

"One possible scenario is that if both sides reach a deal in November, China could resume buying US soybeans, potentially extending the US export window and putting pressure on Brazil's new crop sales," said Johnny Xiang, founder of Beijing-based AgRadar Consulting.

 

Excluding tariffs, US soybeans for October shipment are around US$40 per tonne cheaper than Brazilian cargoes being bought by China, two traders said.

 

China has plentiful of soybeans on hand after stepping up imports with purchases hitting record highs in recent months.

 

-        Reuters