August 17, 2021


USDA cuts 2021 estimates for corn



USDA economists have cut estimates for the size of this year's corn crop on August 12 in their August Supply and Demand report.


They took almost five bushels an acre off their estimates from last month putting this year's crop at 14.75 billion bushels on yields of 174.6 bushels an acre — down 415 million bushels from July's estimates. That also reduced ending stocks for the current marketing year by 190 million bushels — down to 1.24 billion bushels.


However, the report raised the expected average corn price by US$0.15 — up to US$5.75 a bushel. For soybeans, the report cut production by almost one bushel an acre, down to 50 bushels which lowers production estimates to about 4.34 billion bushels.


Economists increased ending soybean stocks to 160 million bushels based on lower projections for the soybean crush and exports. That also means the expected soybean price is expected to remain at US$13.70 a bushel for the current marketing year.


For Wisconsin, the US state's corn crop is now estimated at 484 million bushels on yields of 167 bushels an acre — down seven bushels from 2020. Last year, its corn crop yielded almost 516.8 million bushels.


However, Wisconsin's soybean crop should be bigger, by almost six million bushels as the report now pegs the beans to yield 106 million bushels based on yields of 49 bushels an acre.


The report also lowered both beef and pork production for the year. Beef production is pegged at just under 28.9 billion pounds - down 33 million pounds from the July report.


US pork production is now put at 29.7 billion pounds — down 327 million pounds from the July forecast. Those numbers mean steer prices in 2022 are now expected to average US$126 a hundred — up from the US$122 forecast in July while hog prices are expected to remain weak at just US$56 a hundred through 2022.