August 17, 2009

 

 

Argentine wheat conditions improved over the past week across much of the farm belt, although the crop is suffering from drought in the western areas, the Agriculture Secretariat said in its weekly crop report Friday (August 14).

 

In the Coronel Dorrego district of Buenos Aires Province, farmers planted 27 percent less wheat area than last season. Initial expectations were for a 40 percent drop, "but due to the showers in the last days, area is being increased," the Secretariat said.

 

But in the Laboulaye district of Cordoba province "conditions are deteriorating due to the lack of water and typical August winds."

 

With many fields in bad shape, the worst are being turned over to cattle pasture, the Secretariat said.

 

According to the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange, 95 percent of the forecast 2.75 million hectares had been planted with wheat as of Wednesday. Nationwide, area is expected to be down 40.2 percent on the year and represents the smallest area going to wheat in over 100 years.

 

Neither the Secretariat nor the Buenos Aires exchange have forecast production yet, but the Rosario Grain Exchange says that 2009-10 wheat production is likely to total about 7.4 million metric tonnes.

 

That's down from 8.7 million tonnes in 2008-09, and down sharply from the average of 14.76 million tonnes over the previous five years.

 

With domestic demand estimated at 6 million tonnes, just 1.4 million tonnes of wheat is likely to be left over for export from the 2009-10 crop, according to the Rosario Exchange.

 

Sunflower seed planting is just starting in the northern areas, but continued dryness is slowing progress, the exchange said.

 

Sunflower seed area is expected to be down 15 percent from last season, the Secretariat said.

 

The Buenos Aires exchange has forecast planting at 2.22 million hectares, significantly higher than the 2 million hectares expected by the Rosario Grain Exchange. The Rosario exchange forecasts production of 3.4 million tonnes, up from about 3 million tonnes last season.

 

The first 2009-10 corn planting kicked off in Santa Fe province this week, with 1,000 hectares seeded as of Thursday, the Secretariat said.

 

The 2008-09 corn harvest done, with the Buenos Aires exchange pegging commercial corn production at just 12.5 million tonnes. The crop was the smallest in over a decade due to extensive drought damage.

 

Meanwhile, corn area during the 2009-10 season is likely to fall sharply, according to the Rosario exchange.

 

Area is unlikely to be over 2.3 million hectares, with 2009-10 production at about 16 million tonnes, according to the Rosario exchange.

 

Half of that amount will likely be set aside by the government for domestic demand, leaving just 8 million tonnes available for export, according to the Rosario exchange.

 

Soy production is expected to rise sharply again next season.

 

Soy planting is likely to surge to between 19 million and 20 million hectares during the 2009-10 season, Buenos Aires exchange chief climatologist Eduardo Sierra said in a recent interview. That would shatter the record set during the 2008-09 season, when farmers seeded 16.6 million hectares with the oilseed.

 

The Rosario exchange forecasts 2009-10 soy planting of 18.5 million hectares, with production of 50 million tonnes.

 

In addition to weather factors, the fact that soy are the only major crop in which the government doesn't control exports is spurring farmers to plant more of the oilseed. Argentina limits the export of wheat and corn to ensure domestic supply and keep down local prices.