August 15, 2005
ASA Weekly: Surge in Chinese soybean imports; Indonesia to revise import policy
Surge in Chinese soybean imports
China's soybean imports were estimated to have reached 14.44 million tonnes in January-July this year, an increase of 10.67 million tonnes or 35 percent from the same period of last year.
Soybean imports were about 2.57 million tonnes in July alone. China also imported 2.67 million tonnes of soybeans valued at US$812 549 in June 2005. Soybean imports reached 12.01 million tonnes valued at almost $3.557 million in the first half of 2005, up 33.6 percent and 5.6 percent respectively year-on-year.
Indonesia to revise import policy
The Indonesian government and state-owned commodity regulator PT Bulog will revise its current soybean import policy as part of efforts to protect local farmers, and will also encourage more cultivation to help the country become self-sufficient in producing the commodity.
The unregulated import policy has caused soybean prices to fluctuate and resulted in losses for local farmers, said Bulog president Widjanarko Puspoyo after a meeting with Vice President Jusuf Kalla last week.
Widjanarko pointed out that the policy had loopholes through which some importers were able to violate the present annual import quota of 900,000 tonnes to 1.2 million tonnes of soybeans.
Soybean demand is predicted to hit 2.1 million tonnes this year, with some 700,000 tonnes produced locally.
Dry weather in eastern Corn Belt affects 2005-06 US soybean production
USDA's first objective yield survey predicted the 2005-06 US soybean production at 76 million tonnes, a 9.53 million tonnes drop from last year's record.
USDA also predicted total US oilseed production for 2005-06 at 87.4 million tonnes, reflecting diminished soybean yield prospects resulting from dry weather in the eastern Corn Belt. Soybean yields are expected to be at 2.60 tonnes a hectare, a drop of 0.255 tonnes a hectare from last year's record.
Soybean exports and crush forecasts were lowered to reflect smaller supplies and higher soybean prices. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 4.9 million tonnes. US soybean meal exports for 2005-06 are projected by USDA to be 5.72 million tonnes, a drop of 998,000 tonnes from 2004-05 levels.
The lower export figure is based on reduced soybean supplies and higher soybean meal prices. Soybean oil ending stocks are expected to reach to 680,000 tonnes, USDA said.
Remaining summer weather will continue to be critical for maturing spring planted crops, although rains have reduced some concerns.
Global oilseed production for 2005-06 is projected to be at 377.3 million tonnes, but higher foreign production has been offset by declines in US production. Reduced oilseed production and slightly higher crush leave 2005-06 global oilseed ending stocks at 56.1 million tonnes. Global oilseed stocks are projected to remain record high despite this month's reduction, USDA said.
Brazil expects boost in soybean, grain and cereal production in 2005-06
Brazil's soybean, grains and cereals production will hit between 120-125 million tonnes in the 2005-06 season, up from last year's drought-hit crop of 112 million tonnes, said Agriculture Minister Roberto Rodrigues.
However, planted area could fall a couple of percentage points as investment in inputs such as seeds, fertilizers and herbicides are reduced.
"Sales of fertilizers in the first half already show this," Rodrigues said.
Before the drought, Brazilian soybean, grains and cereals output was expected to hit 132 million tonnes in 2004-05, according to Brazilian Census Bureau figures.
Barge freight rates volatile on movements, water levels
The movements of grain and soybeans recently led to a weakening in barge freight rates.
However, low water conditions across many US river locations kept rates stable. Off the Illinois River, rates for the week ending August 3 dropped 23 points to 253 percent of tariff. It is also 40 points higher than rates for the same week last year.
The forward rates are expected at 323 percent for September and 306 percent for November.
Should water levels continue to fall, load restrictions could be placed on barges, thus affecting the amount of grain that can be shipped in a barge. Higher rates and shipping delays would be expected.
Grassley sees tighter cap on agricultural payments; Johanns sets farm bill timetable
Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) last week said that senators would be likely to push for a tighter cap on farm payments this fall, which could stimulate political goodwill among urban lawmakers for the next farm bill.
"I've sensed that the majority of the Senate feels strongly about doing this," Grassley said. As part of the budget reconciliation process, Congress must cut US$173 million from the USDA budget for next year and about US$3 billion over the next five years.
Payments currently are limited to US$360,000 for each farm entity, although some farmers get around the limit by creating separate entities or family spin-offs to draw more payments. In the debate for the last farm bill, Grassley pushed for a US$275,000-a-farm cap proposal that was turned down. Grassley said the cap proposal had the support of the White House.
House Agriculture Committee Chairman Bob Goodlatte (R-Va.) said he would oppose any attempts to reopen the 2002 farm bill to enact limits on farm payments. Goodlatte said the US$173 million allotted for farm payments was only a small part of the USDA budget. Cuts could be made elsewhere, he said.
Meanwhile, USDA Secretary Mike Johanns said he hoped to conclude his farm bill hearings by the end of the year, with most of the new farm bill negotiations scheduled to take place throughout 2006.
"This is obviously a very complex piece of legislation," Johanns said. "But it would be my goal to have this farm bill through Congress and signed by President Bush by early 2007, so the agencies involved would have adequate time to prepare for these programmes."
|
U.S. & South America Soybean/Products Balance | |||||||||
|
United States |
Argentina |
Brazil | |||||||
|
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. | |
|
2003/04 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 | |
|
Soybeans |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
4,853 |
3,059 |
7,886 |
1,630 |
2,046 |
4,341 |
3,129 |
2,086 |
1,058 |
|
Production |
66,778 |
85,484 |
78,653 |
33,000 |
39,000 |
39,000 |
50,500 |
51,000 |
62,000 |
|
Imports |
151 |
136 |
82 |
540 |
590 |
485 |
350 |
470 |
200 |
|
Crush |
41,631 |
45,994 |
45,994 |
25,072 |
26,800 |
27,500 |
29,172 |
29,634 |
32,309 |
|
Exports |
23,946 |
30,209 |
30,890 |
6,500 |
8,700 |
9,400 |
19,571 |
19,542 |
22,936 |
|
Other |
3,146 |
4,590 |
4,031 |
1,552 |
1,795 |
2,010 |
3,150 |
3,322 |
3,575 |
|
Usage |
68,723 |
80,793 |
80,915 |
33,124 |
37,295 |
38,910 |
51,893 |
52,498 |
58,820 |
|
Carryout |
3,059 |
7,886 |
5,706 |
2,046 |
4,341 |
4,916 |
2,086 |
1,058 |
4,438 |
|
Soymeal |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
200 |
191 |
227 |
347 |
354 |
529 |
763 |
469 |
425 |
|
Production |
32,953 |
36,536 |
36,501 |
19,807 |
21,172 |
21,725 |
22,920 |
23,730 |
25,459 |
|
Domestic use |
28,590 |
30,118 |
30,527 |
700 |
850 |
950 |
8,784 |
9,400 |
9,900 |
|
Net Exports |
4,372 |
6,382 |
5,974 |
19,100 |
20,147 |
20,914 |
14,430 |
14,374 |
15,434 |
|
Usage |
32,962 |
36,500 |
36,501 |
19,800 |
20,997 |
21,864 |
23,214 |
23,774 |
25,334 |
|
Carryout |
191 |
227 |
227 |
354 |
529 |
390 |
469 |
425 |
550 |
|
Soybean oil |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
676 |
488 |
769 |
99 |
74 |
100 |
150 |
93 |
90 |
|
Production |
7,748 |
8,716 |
8,648 |
4,513 |
4,824 |
4,950 |
5,258 |
5,448 |
5,816 |
|
Domestic use |
7,651 |
7,847 |
8,006 |
140 |
145 |
155 |
2,710 |
2,785 |
2,920 |
|
Net exports |
285 |
588 |
585 |
4,398 |
4,653 |
4,820 |
2,605 |
2,666 |
2,896 |
|
Usage |
7,936 |
8,435 |
8,591 |
4,538 |
4,798 |
4,975 |
5,315 |
5,451 |
5,816 |
|
Carryout |
488 |
769 |
826 |
74 |
100 |
75 |
93 |
90 |
90 |
USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 04 August 2005
|
New |
Accum. |
|
New |
Accum. | ||||
|
Country |
Commodity |
Sales |
Exports |
|
Country |
Commodity |
Sales |
Exports |
|
Canada |
Soybeans |
3.7 |
364.4 |
|
Taiwan |
Soymeal |
0.5 |
25.1 |
|
Colombia |
Soybeans |
5.5 |
142.8 |
|
Barbados |
Soyoil |
0.1 |
1.6 |
|
Costa Rica |
Soybeans |
4.1 |
201.2 |
|
Canada |
Soyoil |
1 |
25.4 |
|
Indonesia |
Soybeans |
1.5 |
949.1 |
|
Dom. Rep. |
Soyoil |
0.1 |
40.5 |
|
Mexico |
Soybeans |
28.7 |
3227 |
|
Kuwait |
Soyoil |
0.1 |
1 |
|
Taiwan |
Soybeans |
23.5 |
1500.1 |
|
Jamaica |
Soyoil |
0.1 |
11.7 |
|
Trinidad |
Soybeans |
0.2 |
67 |
|
Mexico |
Soyoil |
12.2 |
159 |
|
Canada |
Soymeal |
11.2 |
851.7 |
|
Philippines |
Soyoil |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
Denmark |
Soymeal |
4.5 |
0 |
|
Trinidad |
Soyoil |
0.1 |
5 |
|
Egypt |
Soymeal |
8 |
153.2 |
|
Export Sales Totals (tmt) | |||
|
Honduras |
Soymeal |
4 |
99 |
|
Outstanding |
Accum. |
New | |
|
Hong Kong |
Soymeal |
0.7 |
9.9 |
|
Commodity |
Sales |
Exports |
Sales |
|
Korea, Rep. |
Soymeal |
0.3 |
0.4 |
|
Soybeans |
957.9 |
29,350.70 |
92.6 |
|
Mexico |
Soymeal |
10.3 |
962.5 |
|
Soymeal |
507.3 |
5,300.60 |
38.8 |
|
Opac Is. |
Soymeal |
0.1 |
5.6 |
|
Soyoil |
38 |
390.7 |
13.3 |
