August 13, 2025

China shifts soy trade strategy amid domestic surplus and US tensions 

China, long concerned over soybean shortages and firmly established as the world's largest buyer benefiting farmers from the US to Brazil, is now quietly reshaping oilseed product trade as its economy slows.

The Asian nation is stepping up rare exports of soybean oil, as domestic consumers cut back on restaurant visits and rising global demand for biodiesel makes prices attractive enough to send it abroad. Meanwhile, China is testing deliveries of soybean meal from Argentina for the first time, a substitute for importing beans and crushing them into animal feed at home.

Both shifts, while modest in volume, mark a departure from longstanding trade flows. They also include a means for the country to chip away at its need for American soybeans if the trade war between Beijing and Washington persists.

China exported about 127,000 tonnes of soyoil in the first half of the year, exceeding full-year 2024 levels, according to customs data. The shipments are flowing to destinations including South Korea, Malaysia and India, where edible oil demand remains robust.

The trend "reflects a global supply-demand rebalancing in the vegetable oil market", Fu Bo, a senior analyst at Guotai Junan Futures, said in a note. "The rising exports are the result of China needing soybean meal while other countries need soybean oil," he said.

Global soyoil markets remain supported by strong biofuel demand in the US, where about half of local production is used to produce renewable diesel. Meanwhile, domestic biofuel blending mandates and less competitive prices in South American nations such as Brazil and Argentina have limited additional supply.

-      Business Times