August 13, 2007

 

Weather seen providing some relief to US Midwest corn, soy

 

 

Near- and medium-term weather forecasts for the US Midwest suggest a moderation in the above-normal temperatures experienced this week, which may help maturing corn and soybean crops, but the relief may be short-lived, meteorologists said.

 

Much above-normal temperatures and the lack of rainfall in the southern US Midwest over the past week have led to concerns about the yield potential in both corn and soybeans across the region.

 

Moderating temperatures and an increase in rainfall will help the corn and the soybean crops in southern Indiana, said Bob Nielsen, an agronomist with Purdue University extension. Corn is approaching maturity in southern Indiana but can still add to the yield with favourable weather, Nielsen said. Soybeans will benefit more than corn as it is farther away from maturity, "so any moderation in temperatures and more rain will help the soybean crop," said Nielsen.

 

Some 44 percent of the Indiana corn crop was rated in good to excellent condition as of Aug. 5, compared with 50 percent the previous week. The state's soybean crop was rated at 44 percent good to excellent, a 2 percentage point decline from the previous week.

 

On Friday, the US Department of Agriculture estimated 2007 corn yields in the state at 157.0 bushels per acre, unchanged from 2006, while soybean yields were estimated at 47.0 bushels per acre, down 3 bushels from 2006.

 

The majority of the US corn crop is in the dough stage, beginning to fill kernels and add weight. Meanwhile, soybeans are beginning to fill pods. Hot and dry weather during this time can adversely affect the crops' ability to yield, agronomists said.

 

"By the middle of next week the southern US Midwest is expected to see some moderation from the hot and dry weather the region has experienced," said John Dee, a meteorologist with Global Weather Monitoring. There are prospects for rain in the region with potential amounts of 0.50-1.00 inch with parts of Missouri, southern Illinois and southern Indiana expected to benefit.

 

Temperatures will also back off from the mid- to upper 90 degrees Fahrenheit seen this week in the region to highs in the middle 80s to lower 90s for much of next week, Dee said. However, the relief from the above-normal temperatures will be short-lived, with hotter readings returning by the weekend with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s.

 

Cooler weather is also expected in the northern US Midwest later next week, which would provide some relief to corn and soybean crops in Minnesota and parts of northern Iowa which have experienced poor weather in much of the growing season,

 

"Following the above-normal readings seen this week, high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s are possible by the end of next week, temporarily providing relief before rebounding back into the mid-80s and low 90s F," said Drew Lerner, a meteorologist with World Weather Inc.

 

In the near-term, scattered showers and thundershowers are forecast for this weekend, continuing into early next week in western sections of the region with amounts of 0.40-1.00 inch possible, Lerner said.

 

"Every little bit of rain received will certainly help the crops from here on out," said Seth Naeve, an agronomist with the University of Minnesota extension.

 

Much of the state has received below-normal rainfall this year. According to the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service, 84% of Minnesota's crop land was rated short to very short on top soil moisture supplies.

 

Even those corn fields that are in very poor shape will retain some yield if moisture is received. The weather has "taken off a huge chunk of the yield potential for corn, but any rain received will maintain current yield potential," Naeve said. The USDA currently estimates corn yields at 156.0 bushels per acre in Minnesota, below the 161.0 bushels the state's farmers produced in 2006.

 

The soybean crop has "much more to gain from better weather from here to the end of August," Naeve said. "In fact, if it turns rainy during the latter two-thirds of August, we could actually have quite a good soybean crop in Minnesota" said Naeve.