August 12, 2024

 

Expected steady growth of US poultry, egg production through 2033 following HPAI outbreaks

 

 

US poultry and egg production is projected to grow steadily through 2033, after outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) sharply reduced the United States' poultry and egg-laying flock in 2022 and 2023, according to the US Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service (USDA-ERS).

 

The USDA's annual 10-year projections, also known as the US agricultural baseline, provide a long-term outlook for major crop and livestock commodities and are based on specific assumptions. For the poultry and egg sector, assumptions include no more outbreaks of animal disease, a continuation of existing US and global policies and trade agreements, normal weather, and specific macroeconomic conditions.

 

Broiler and turkey meat accounted for 46% of all US red meat and poultry consumption by volume in 2023, with cash receipts of over US$50 billion.

 

In 2023, nearly 16% of US broiler production was exported. Easing prices for domestic feed, the costliest input in any animal production, are expected to benefit all three main poultry sectors: broilers, eggs, and turkey. Market prices for broilers and eggs are expected to increase moderately over the projection period, while turkey prices are expected to decrease slightly as domestic demand weakens.

 

The egg sector continues to recover after avian influenza struck the egg-laying flock, with millions of laying hens lost to either the disease or to depopulation.

 

US egg production fell from 9.4 billion dozen in 2019 to a five-year low of 9.1 billion dozen in 2022. When USDA formulated its agricultural baseline projections in October 2023, HPAI cases were relatively low, and egg production had begun to recover. Consistent with the baseline presumption of no further avian influenza outbreaks, US egg production was projected to recover this year and continue to expand to a record 10.8 billion dozen by 2033 as the US population and per capita consumption grew. Projected growth reflects ongoing demand for eggs and egg-containing products.

 

After the finalisation of the baseline projections, a new cluster of outbreaks in late 2023 and early 2024 affected egg production. More recent forecasts for egg production in 2024 are lower, reflecting ongoing challenges but still representing an increase from the previous year.

 

The turkey sector also faced disease and other challenges over the past decade. From 2017 to 2022, turkey production declined 12.7% from 6.0 billion pounds to 5.2 billion, the lowest production level this century. The COVID-19 pandemic temporarily affected the availability of labor for meatpackers and changed the patterns of demand for turkey meat. The sector had not fully recovered by 2022, when more than nine million turkeys were depopulated as a result of an HPAI outbreak. After seemingly winding down, the outbreak returned for a second wave, becoming the largest outbreak of HPAI in US history in terms of total poultry losses.

 

Additionally, consumer demand for turkey has weakened, and production has been restrained.

 

With the assumption that the avian flu's effects had run their course, the USDA's long-term outlook projected turkey production to grow 14% by 2033 from the depressed levels in 2022, reaching 6.0 billion pounds. Even so, per capita consumption is expected to continue its downward trend.

 

Broiler production weathered the pandemic and avian influenza challenges of the last few years without experiencing the dramatic drops that affected turkey and egg production. The annual growth in broiler production remained positive through both the pandemic and the avian influenza outbreak, although the annual growth rate dropped below 1% in 2021 and 2023.

 

Broilers are produced primarily in the Southeast United States, which wasn't as heavily impacted by the HPAI outbreak. Broilers also typically require only seven weeks from hatching to slaughter and are less susceptible to avian influenza than older laying hens and turkeys, which are raised at least twice as long as broilers before slaughter.

 

Chicken production is projected to grow from 45.7 billion pounds in 2022 to 52.5 billion pounds in 2033, surpassing previous records each year, as feed prices retreat from recent highs and the number of broilers processed continues to trend upward.

 

Production volatility during the pandemic and the 2022–23 HPAI outbreak affected prices poultry producers received. However, prices for each of the major poultry products are expected to be stable through the 10-year projection period as steps to prevent further outbreaks continue.

 

Farm prices (prices received by producers, which are typically lower than those paid by consumers at the retail/supermarket level) for eggs peaked in 2022 at US$2.39 per dozen but are projected to remain well below this mark and are not expected to exceed US$1.50 per dozen throughout the projection period. Not adjusting for inflation, egg prices are forecast to reach US$1.49 per dozen by 2033. Farm prices for broilers are projected to decline through 2028, falling to a low of US$0.71 per pound before beginning a steady climb and reaching US$0.75 per pound by 2033. Broiler prices peaked in 2022 at US$0.85 per pound.

 

Farm prices for turkey, which reached a high of US$1.07 per pound in 2022, are expected to fall to US$0.96 in 2025 and continue to decline to US$0.91 by 2033.

 

Although turkey prices are projected to fall over the period, they are expected to remain higher than pre-2022 levels.

 

- USDA-ERS