August 12, 2015


Cuts in US corn, soybean outputs expected in upcoming USDA report



With the bad weather in parts of the US' Farm Belt, analysts expects the USDA to cut down estimates for local corn and soybean output in its monthly supply-and-demand report this week.


Corn could be pegged at a production volume of 13.318 billion bushels, lower than 13.53 billion bushels given by a July outlook, Dow Jones Business News reported. For yields, these could be reduced from 166.8 bushels per acre in July, to 164.4 bushels per acre this month.


The production of soybean may be downgraded to 3.719 billion bushels in August, compared to July's forecast of 3.885 billion bushels. Yields could be revised to 44.6 bushels per acre, down from 46 bushels per acre, analysts said.


According to market observers, the USDA might have overstated actual plantings before cultivations were impacted by heavy rain.


Yields of corn and soybean, planted in the eastern Midwest, were challenged by excess moisture while those further west fared much better. 


Karl Setzer, an analyst with MaxYield Cooperative in West Bend, Iowa, noted of a significant variability of crops for 2015. "They vary from county to county and field to field. It will be December before this crop is put away and we know what we've got," Setzer said.


In the meantime, stockpiles of US corn could amount to 1.781 billion bushels at the conclusion of the 2014-15 season on August 31. The volume represents a mild rise over 1.779 billion bushels stated in a July forecast. However, by August 31 next year, inventories could decline to 1.427 billion bushels, lower than estimates given in July.


Soybean is expected to reach 247 million bushels by August 31 this year. While the volume is a drop from 255 million bushels in July, inventories in 2016 could increase to 305 million bushels. 


For US wheat, a harvest volume of 2.161 billion bushels could be achieved in the year commencing on June 1. The volume will also include 1.454 billion bushels of winter grain.


The production of hard-red winter wheat in the southern Great Plains is expected to reach 867 million bushels. In addition, 391 million bushels of soft-red varieties will be collected as well as 195 million bushels for white-winter types, based on an average outlook by analysts.


For spring wheat, analysts expects an output of 628 million bushels.


In its upcoming report concerning global wheat inventories for 2015-16, the USDA is expected to project output at 218.6 million tonnes, compared to an estimated 211.3 million tonnes in 2014-15.