August 12, 2013


Argentina's wheat production declines in MY 2013-14



For marketing year (MY) 2013-14, estimates for Argentine wheat production was at 12.0 million tonnes, one million tonnes lower than USDA official estimate.


A large area in the northern part of the country was not seeded due to a two-year-long drought. Potential exports are adjusted downward to 5.7 million tonnes, one million tonnes lower than USDA's projection.


Wheat production and exports for MY 2012-13 are also reduced. Barley area, production, and exports for MY 2013-14 are marginally higher than USDA.


Farmers continue to see barley as the best alternative to wheat, which continues to be affected by government policy.


Post's corn production for MY 2013-14 is projected at 26 million tonnes. Exports are reduced by one million tonnes.


The Argentine Ministry of Agriculture recently released its July report indicating that it has implemented a new methodology and found a significantly larger number of hectares of corn and thus a bigger production.


The private sector is sceptical about these new numbers. Estimating corn production is complicated and closely following exports in the next few months will validate this additional output.


Post's projection for sorghum production for MY 2013-14 is 400,000 tonnes lower than USDA's official number.


Post projects rice area, production and exports lower than USDA's official numbers in crops MY 2013-14 and MY 2012-13.