August 11, 2004

China To Import Less Soybeans in 2004-05 Crop Year

China is expected to import less soybeans in the 2004-05 crop year than in the previous year, reported official Xinhua News Agency, citing an official with China National Grain and Oil Information Center.

The official did not give a specific projection or a reason for the expected slowdown, other than saying China was introducing new permit certificates pertaining to soybean import procedures. The State General Administration for Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine had begun to issue permits to importers "in an orderly way" since June this year.

In the 2003-2004 crop year ended September, China imported 16.5 million tons of soybeans, according to the Xinhua report.

Customs data shows China imported 10.15 million tons of soybeans in the first half of this calendar year.

The official also said the country would still rely on imports to help balance soybean supply and demand in the domestic market. 

An analyst at CNGOIC forecast domestic soybean output in 2004-2005 will rise to 17.2 million metric tons as a result of increased acreage and good weather, while demand could reach 35 million tons.

This would result in a supply gap of 17.8 million tons which would need to be covered by imports and stocks.

The CNGOIC analyst did not provide an estimate of stock levels.