August 10, 2023

 

Brazil soybean exports projected at 99 million tonnes in 2024

 

 

Brazil's soybean exports are expected to soar to a record-breaking 99 million tonnes in 2024, marking a 4% surge from the current year's estimated 95 million tonnes, Fastmarkets reported.

 

The estimations, provided by the local consultancy Safras & Mercado, have escalated the expectations for 2023 by an additional 1 million tonnes, 21% higher compared to the 78.7 million tonnes exported in 2022.

 

This surge in exports is accompanied by a projected increase in Brazil's soybean crush for 2024, predicted to reach 55 million tonnes, reflecting a 3% rise from this year's forecast of 53.4 million tonnes and exceeding the May projection of 53 million tonnes.

 

The consultancy has upheld the 2024 import figures at the current year's level of 150,000 tonnes, which remains unchanged, reflecting a significant 64% reduction from the 419,000 tonnes imported in 2022.

 

Safras has also outlined a buoyant projection for soybean output in 2023-24, estimating a total of 163.2 million tonnes, marking a 5% escalation from the 156.1 million tonnes produced in the 2022-23 period and establishing an all-time high.

 

This robust outlook extends to various metrics within the soybean sector, including total availability, which is anticipated to rise to 171.5 million tonnes in 2023, signifying a substantial 7% increase from the preceding year's 160 million tonnes and an impressive 18% surge from 2022's 136 million tonnes.

 

In tandem with this robust trajectory, the total demand is forecasted to reach 157.7 million tonnes in 2024, reflecting a 4% growth compared to this year's estimate of 151.9 million tonnes and a substantial 15% upswing from 2022's 132.3 million tonnes.

 

But ending stocks are projected to experience a noteworthy 70% expansion, reaching 13.8 million tonnes in 2024, which stands in contrast to the 8.1 million tonnes recorded in 2023. Similarly, the projected ending stocks for the current year are expected to surpass 2022's figures by 118%, reaching 3.7 million tonnes.

 

Soymeal production is predicted to reach 42.3 million tonnes in 2024, reflecting a 3% increase from the current year's forecast of 41 million tonnes, which itself had marked a 5% rise from 2022's 39.2 million tonnes. Notably, exports of soymeal are estimated at 21.5 million tonnes, experiencing a slight 2% decrease from 2023's estimates of 22 million tonnes, yet still reflecting an 8% increase compared to 2022's 20.3 million tonnes.

 

-      Fastmarkets