August 8, 2012
 
Thai Feed Weekly:  Dim Asean corn outlook driving Thai corn prices up (week ended Jul 30)
 
An eFeedLink Exclusive.
 
 
Price Summary
 
Defying government predictions, Thai corn prices continue to sizzle, with most feed factories across the country now buying it at THB10.88/kg (US$0.35/kg) on the average, up from THB10.60/kg (US$0.34/kg) last week, according Thailand's Office of Agricultural Economics.
 
CP Feeds, Thailand's number one feed maker, also reports that its procurement price has gone up to THB11.20/kg (US$0.36/kg) from THB11/kg (US$0.35/kg)  last week.
 
Prices of other feed ingredients also surged during the week. Following days of monsoon rains in the Andaman Sea, which has caused a drop in fish catch, local fishmeal prices have gone up. Shrimp grade fishmeal now sells at THB24.21/kg (US$0.77/kg), up from only THB22.71/kg (US$0.72/kg) last week.
 
There has also been an uptick in the price of rice byproducts following the government's decision to bid its current rice inventory of 11 million tonnes to exporters without any floor price. Release of the huge rice stockpile means the government would have more room to buy more rice from farmers as part of its ongoing mortgage scheme.  
 
 
Market analysis
 
Thailand's Commerce Ministry had earlier predicted that domestic corn prices could drop sharply in July, when up to 80% of the country's corn production is usually harvested.
 
The US Department of Agriculture sees Thai corn output in 2012 to be around 4.5 million tonnes, up from 4.3 million tonnes last year. In June, the Commerce Ministry even disclosed a plan to launch a subsidy programme should the price of corn drop below THB8.35/kg (US$0.26/kg).
 
There are no signs however that the price of corn is going to weaken anytime soon. Throughout July it has in fact been escalating, a trend the Thai Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE) attributes to rising demand in the region.
 
The OAE says corn consumption among ASEAN countries this year is estimated to be 44 million tonnes, up 7% from last year. The region, it adds, needs to import 5 million tonnes this year to meet its demand.
 
A net corn importer, especially from neighbours like Laos and Cambodia, this dire corn supply situation in the region has been weighing heavily on Thai corn prices, according to the OAE.
 
Corn output among exporting countries, including the US, is predicted to drop this year due to ongoing drought in the US and South America.
 

 

PRICE as of  Jul 23
(in Thai baht/kg)

PRICE as of  Jul 30
(in Thai baht/kg)

Changes
(in Thai baht/kg)

Corn (Moisture not more than 14.5%)
Delivered to feed factory

10.60

10.88

+0.28

Corn Picked up at silo

9.24

(no report)

--

Cassava

2.40

2.40

--

White Broken Rice A.1 Super (US$/tonne)

526.00

531.00

+5.00

White rice bran

8.40

9.20

+0.80

Rice bran residue 

6.40

7.40

+1.00 

Soy

17.28

(no report)

-- 

Soymeal

19.70

19.70

--

Fishmeal (protein less than 60%)

22.71

24.21

+1.50

US$1=THB 31.51 (Aug. 5, 2011)
 
  


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