August 6, 2007

 

Revival of monsoon may boost India's oilseeds output

 

The revival of monsoon rains in central regions may give a boost to India's oilseeds output from summer plantings this year, scientists and edible oils industry officials said Friday (August 3).

 

The central regions, which grow most of India's soy are passing through a weak phase of monsoon since mid-July but there are meteorological indications of more rains from around August 8 onwards.

 

"An area of low atmospheric pressure is likely to be formed near the Bay of Bengal by Saturday, which will initiate revival of monsoon in central regions," said Brahm Yadav, director, India Meteorological Department, the country's weather bureau.

 

He said initially rains will be heavy in eastern provinces of Orissa and Chhattisgarh but from August 8 the main rainfall belt will shift to central and western provinces of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat and Rajasthan.

 

These provinces are amongst the main oilseeds producing regions of the country.

 

Subdued rains in Madhya Pradesh for the last two weeks was slowly becoming a cause of concern but industry officials now say production prospects are expected to improve with the revival of the monsoon.

 

"Certain parts of soy-producing regions have experienced rainfall stress but it can be sustained if rains increase next week as has been forecast by the weather bureau," said Rajesh Agarwal, spokesman for the Soy Processors Association of India.

 

He said rains have been sporadic since mid-July but moisture levels are still adequate.

 

According to industry estimates, India produced 7.66 million tonnes soy in the year that ended in June 2007.

 

Several traders said soy production may exceed 8.0 million tonnes this year.

 

However, Agarwal said, it is too early to make output-related forecasts for this year because a lot will depend on the performance of rains in August, even though there is the likelihood of a rise in output on the year.

 

Latest government data issued Friday shows the area covered by soy so far at 8.18 million hectares, up from 7.73 million hectares a year earlier.

 

Agarwal said farmers seem to have shifted to the sowing of soy this year due to attractive prices for their previous year's production.