August 6, 2007

 

Variable yields seen in large US Midwest corn crop states

 

A lack of timely rainfall and hot temperatures are expected to take a toll on corn yields in several of the largest US corn-producing states this summer though not every state has been impacted by poor weather, agronomists and crop experts said.

 

They add that will lead to variable yields across the US Corn Belt.

 

In 2006, US farmers produced 10.535 billion bushels of corn, with an average yield of 149.1 bushels per acre. Last year production in the top five producing states - Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota and Indiana - accounted for over 66 percent of the total.

This spring US, producers planted 92.9 million acres, the largest amount of corn acreage since World War II. The strongest price levels in over a decade - from surging demand from ethanol industries and foreign buyers - led to the increase in seedings.

In Illinois, the corn crop is "one of the best we've seen," said Dennis Bowman, a regional crops educator with the University of Illinois extension. The crop was planted in favourable conditions, received timely rain and looks very good at this point, Bowman said.

 

Overall, "it's a good crop over a wide area, with only a few areas of the state where the corn has been under some stress, but a pretty big chunk of Illinois has got really nice corn right now," Bowman said. Corn yields currently could be better than last year, he said.

 

In 2006, the state produced an average yield of 163.0 bushels per acre, up 20 bushels from 2005 drought-pinched levels. Corn acreage in Illinois is up 1.9 million acres this year from 2006 at 13.2 million acres.

 

Conditions in Indiana are worse than a year-ago and are expected to hurt the state's corn yields. "As a whole, we're likely not going to have as high of a yield state-wide as we did last year," said Bob Nielsen, corn agronomist with Purdue University extension.

 

Projections for this year came in about 150 bushels per acre and "I'm guessing that yields will be 5 to 7 percent lower this year, due to the dry weather in many parts of the state throughout the summer," said Nielsen. A 5 percent decline in yields would result in production of 143.0 bushels per acre. In 2006, Indiana produced an average of 157 bushels per acre.

 

Despite the expected decline in yields, overall production will likely be above last year due to an increase in planted acreage, Nielsen said. Indiana farmers planted 6.6 million acres of corn this year, up 1.1 million from last year according to the US Department of Agriculture.

 

Any rainfall received now will help finish off the grain-filling process, increasing kernel weights, but the crop needs some rain sooner rather than later to get past the current hot spell, Nielsen said.

 

In Nebraska, favourable weather for much of the summer has benefited the state's corn crop, said Lenis Nelson, a crop agronomist with the University of Nebraska extension.

Corn in the state is "looking pretty good, coming along in very good shape," Nelson said.

 

Ninety-two percent of the crop was reported silking, above the five-year average of 87 percent with 31 percent of the crop in the dough stage, higher than the 5-year average of 20 percent, through July 29, the USDA reported Monday.

 

Nebraska production will be higher due to producers there increasing corn planted acreage by 1 million acres, though yields may be in line with the levels seen in 2006, Nelson said. Last year, the average bushel per acre yield was 152.0 bushels.

 

While some big producers like Illinois have had a good season, conditions in parts of the northern US Midwest are not as favourable to yields.

 

In Minnesota, "yields will definitely fall short of last year," said Seth Naeve, extension agronomist at the University of Minnesota. "The drought is really hurting the state's corn crop, it's pretty severe and as a result, the state's corn yields will be down," Naeve said.

 

According to the USDA's weekly crop progress report, 78 percent of the topsoil moisture was rated short-to-very short in the week ending July 29, underscoring the lack of rain.

 

Although corn acreage in the state is up 900,000 acres from last year, corn production will be lower as the decline in corn yields will more than offset the increase in acreage, Naeve said.

 

"Total production will be quite a bit lower," Naeve said. In 2006, Minnesota produced 1.1 billion bushels of corn.

 

Although farmers in Iowa increased corn acreage by 1.7 million acres from the level planted in 2006, early season problems in Iowa, the nation's largest corn-producing state, are expected to weigh on yields. Moisture stress in some sections of the state also adding to an expected decline in yields, an agronomist said.

 

In Iowa, "yields generally won't be as good as last year," said Lori Abendroth, an agronomist at Iowa State University. Recent rains have helped, but the late start for planting corn led to many early season problems such as poor root establishment and early season weed control, Abendroth said. In 2006, Iowa farmers produced an average yield of 166.0 bushels per acre, compared to 173.0 bushels per acre in 2005.

 

In addition, the lack of moisture during pollination in the parts of the northwest, western and central areas of the state has also led to concerns that yields will be lower than last year, she said.

 

Overall even if late season-weather co-operates, yields will not be as good as last year, but production will be higher due to the increase in the state's corn acreage.

 

Iowa farmers planted 14.3 million acres of corn this spring, 1.7 million acres above last year.

 

The USDA is scheduled to release its first field survey of the 2007 corn crop at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT) Aug. 10.