Argentina soymeal, soyoil exports to fall

Argentina's soymeal and soyoil exports are likely to fall sharply in the second half of 2009 due to the country's poor output this year, according to oilseeds analysts Oil World on Tuesday (Aug 4).

Argentina's poor soy production has led to low soy stocks.

Soymeal production in the second half of 2009 will drop about 2.1 million tonnes, leading to a decline in exports by 1.8 million tonnes, said Oil World.

Argentina's second half soyoil exports are projected to drop 400,000 tonnes on-year, partly due to increased competition for soyoil supplies from the domestic biodiesel industry.

Sharply reduced soy production and front-loaded disposals have decimated soy stocks in Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay to as much as 20.5 million tonnes below last year's levels as of July 1, 2009, Oil World said.

The decline in Argentine exports will increase global dependence on US supplies, it said.

US and Indian soymeal will be sought as alternatives, but India's soy crop size is uncertain because of drought.

The US will have difficulty meeting a sudden spike in global demand for US soy, as logistics will be a major constraint, Oil World concluded.