July 28, 2025
China to slash pork production as excess hog supply drives down prices
In response to a persistent oversupply of pigs that has contributed to a steep drop in pork prices, China's agricultural authorities have announced concrete plans to cut back on the country's breeding stock.
Measures should be taken to reasonably cull the sow population, reduce secondary fattening – feeding hogs past standard slaughter weights to increase margins – and strictly control new capacity to address the issue, said Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Han Jun.
The announcement comes as pig, chicken and duck farmers across the country report deep losses and mounting financial pressure.
Analysts noted weak end-market demand and high inventory levels are weighing heavily on the sector, and while marginal improvements are expected in the second half of the year, the overall scope for recovery remains limited.
"This round of losses has lasted more than seven months, unlike anything the industry has experienced before," said Liu Changsheng, head of the Shandong Duck Breeding Alliance industry group, in an interview with financial news platform CLS.cn.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, by the end of June the national breeding sow inventory stood at 40.43 million – down 370,000 from its peak in 2024, but still 3.7% above the official target of 39 million.
In a report last week, commodity market data provider Sublime China Information (SCI) said as production tightens, the average hog price could rebound to around CN¥15.07 per kilogramme (US$2.10) in August. However, the report authors noted that overall supply remains ample and any price increase is likely to be moderate.
According to data from the National Development and Reform Commission, the country's top economic planner, the average price per kilogram of live hogs fell to CN¥14.45 (US$2.05) in the second week of June – the lowest level in 17 months and well below the 2020 peak of CN¥37.83 (US$5.29).
The poultry industry is under similar strain. According to SCI, the output of white-feather broiler chickens – the most popular breed for meat production – reached 4.412 billion birds, up 11.7% year on year. But prices have remained depressed, with wholesale quotes in the poultry hub of Shandong province falling as low as CN¥6/ kg (US$0.84) in July, leaving many farmers operating at a loss.
Duck producers have also begun cutting output since April. By the middle of July, about 9 million breeding ducks had been culled, CLS.cn reported.
Liu estimated that daily duckling output would fall from 12 million in April to about 8.5 million by the end of August.
- South China Morning Post
