July 27, 2012


IGC greatly reduces 2012/13 corn expectation due to US drought


The International Grains Council (IGC) has slashed significantly its 2012/13 global corn harvest expectation on Thursday (July 26), in view of US experiencing its worst drought since 1956, bringing corn stock to a six-year low by the end of the season.


World corn production in 2012/13 was put at 864 million tonnes, down 53 million tonnes from a previous forecast of 917 million and now below the prior season's 870 million.


"The 2012/13 outlook for maize production has generally worsened, especially in the US where high temperatures and severe drought have reduced prospects," the IGC said in a monthly market update.


"Exporter availabilities are tightening and global carryover stocks are now expected to decline to the lowest level in six years," the report added.


The IGC put this year's US corn crop at 300 million tonnes, down from a previous estimate of 350 million and now below the prior season's 314 million.


The US Department of Agriculture earlier this month cut its forecast for the US corn crop to 12.97 billion bushels which equates to 329 million tonnes while analysts in a Reuters poll this week saw an even bleaker outlook.


The IGC projected corn stocks at the end of the 2012/13 season at 115 million tonnes, a six-year low.


World wheat production in 2012/13 was forecast at 665 million tonnes, unchanged from its previous estimate but below the prior season's 696 million.


The IGC cut forecasts for wheat production in Russia and Kazakhstan but raised crop outlooks for China and India.


"China and India output is revised higher; but the combined forecast for the eight major exporters is again lower, as prospects for the Black Sea region have deteriorated," the IGC said.


World wheat stocks at the end of the 2012/13 season were raised by one million. tonnes to 183 million although that remains a four-year low.