July 27, 2007

 

World corn output seen to reach 752 million tonnes

 

 

The International Grains Council forecast 2007/08 world corn production at 752 million tonnes, up 2 million from the June projection and from last year's 697 million tonnes.  The upward forecast in global corn output has IGC raised its forecast for 2007/08 global grain output to 1.658 billion tonnes, up 2 million tonnes from last month's s projection and up 90 million tonnes on the year.

 

The US corn crop forecast was raised this month by 5 million tonnes to 320 million tonnes and China's output was increased by 2 million to 145 million. The forecast for the European Union was cut by 5.2 million tonnes to 50.8 million tonnes, with the largest reduction in Hungary and Romania.

 

IGC now forecasts 2007/08 world wheat production at 613.7 million tonnes, down 700,000 tonnes from the June forecast, but still up 23 million tonnes from 2006/07.

 

China's wheat output estimate was raised this month by 3 million tonnes to 105 million tonnes and output in the Commonwealth of Independent States was increased by 500,000 tonnes to 86.4 million tonnes. Meanwhile, EU's wheat crop estimate was trimmed by 2.9 million tonnes this month to 126.7 million tonnes.

 

In addition to the higher output, the IGC cut its forecast for 2007-08 grain consumption by 2 million tonnes to 1.673 billion tonnes.

 

"High prices are restraining growth in food and feed use, but consumption of ethanol and other industrial purposes continues to increase," said IGC.

 

Thus IGC revised up its 2007/08 global ending stocks forecast by 5 million tonnes to 241 million tonnes, which is still down 16 million tonnes on the year.

 

Corn ending stocks in 2007/08 are now estimated at 92 million tonnes, up 6 million tonnes from the June forecast, but still down 10 million from 2006/07.

 

But IGC did raise 2007/08 global corn consumption 1 million tonnes on the month to 763 million tonnes, which is up from 721 million tonnes in 2006/07.

 

World wheat carryover in 2007/08 was raised 1 million tonnes from last month to 112 million tonnes, up 1 million from last month, but down 4 million tonnes on the year.

 

IGC cut global wheat consumption for 2007/08 by 2 million tonnes from the June forecast to 617 million tonnes, but still up from last year's 611 million tonnes.

 

Wheat use was cut due to expectations for lower use in EU animal feed.