July 25, 2022

Brazil's grain production expected to be higher in 2021/22 season

Brazil's grain production should reach 272.5 million tonnes in the 2021/22 season, up 6.7% (17 million tons) compared to the previous season, according to the 10th Crop Survey published by the National Supply Company (Conab).

The area is also expected to increase by four million hectares, reaching an estimated 73.8 hectacres.

With about 60% of the second harvest corn maturing and 28% harvested, the total harvest of the cereal is estimated at 115.6 million tonnes, up 32.8% from last season.

In the second crop alone, the increase reached 45.6% of production, reaching close to 88.4 million tonnes. If the forecast is realised, it will be the largest second-crop corn production on record. However, it is important to note that, even with the advanced stage of harvest, about 19% of the second-crop corn crop is still under the influence of weather.

In this survey, estimates, in general, have been revised upward compared to those published in the previous report. Soybeans and cotton were the exceptions, due to expected production declines. For soybeans, estimates for seed and other use ending stocks also declined by 0.11% and 4.42%, respectively, with 2022 carryover stocks estimated at 4.65 million tonnes.

Estimates for corn were also adjusted upward, with the exception of ending stocks, which were down 1.19% from the previous survey, with an expected volume of 10.4 million tonnes at the end of the season.

As for the comparison with the 2020/21 season, what stands out most is the lower volume of total imports, a decrease that is justified by the greater availability of cereals in the current season, which should reduce imports in the second half of the year compared to the same period in 2021.

- CONAB (Brazil)