July 25, 2022


Possible for Philippines to recover from ASF in two years, according to international agencies



The Philippines may finally recover from African swine fever (ASF) in two years' time with pork output expected to return to 1.6 million tonnes, according to joint forecasts of international agencies.


The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (OECD-FAO) projected that additional pork output from the Philippines is expected in the next two to three years.


In its 10-year Global Agricultural Outlook spanning 2022 to 2031, the OECD-FAO, said the future is bright for global pig production as countries battered by ASF, such as the Philippines, China and Vietnam, may start to recover their lost pig herd.


"Global pork production is projected to increase by 17% [18Mt] by 2031, relative to the ASF affected base period 2019-21. The sector is assumed to recover from ASF by 2023, so that almost all of the projected growth will come early in the next decade," it said. "Most additional pig meat production is expected to originate in China by 2023, as well as in the Philippines and Vietnam, where production is expected to recover from the losses of the ASF outbreak in the next two to three years," it added.


The OECD-FAO projected that the Philippines's pork output next year would grow by 19% to 1.311 million tonnes from this year's estimated total production of 1.10 million tonnes.


The OECD-FAO added that the country's pork production would expand further by 22.8%, reaching pre-ASF and pre-pandemic levels of over 1.6 million tonnes in 2024.


From thereon, the OECD-FAO foresees that Philippine pork production would be on an upward trend until it hits 2.157 million tonnes by 2031.


Still, the OECD-FAO noted: "The Philippine hog industry needs a lot of catching up to do due to the tremendous impact of the African swine fever epidemic in the previous year and the increasing demand locally.


"All sectors, particularly the government, should focus resources on how it can assist the potentially viable hog industry of Philippine agriculture."


The OECD-FAO also stated that global growth in pork production would remain "limited" in the first years of its decade-long outlook due to ongoing ASF recovery efforts in China, the Philippines and Vietnam.


"The recovery process is assumed to be completed in China and Vietnam by 2023 and in the Philippines by 2024," it said.


"Government strategies in the latter two are based on the development of a commercially available vaccine to control the spread of ASF, which will be critical in reducing the risks of future ASF outbreaks," it added.

- BusinessMirror

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