July 24, 2023

EU cereal production likely to be higher in 2023

The European Union's cereal production is expected to be higher this year, despite a potential drop in EU cereal area and reduced yield growth.

EU cereal and oilseed production could increase in 2023/2024, by 5% and 8% respectively. EU exports of cereals could also continue to grow by about 6% while EU imports of cereals, particularly from Ukraine, are expected to decline by 35% from a historically high level observed in 2022/2023. This is due to ongoing work to improve the logistical chains and infrastructures for Ukrainian imports but also to a higher EU domestic production.

In particular, lower imports are expected for soft wheat (-57%), maize (-33%) and barley (-25%), while imports of durum wheat could increase (+30%).

A similar trend is expected for imports of rapeseed and sunflower seeds. Compared to historically high levels of imports in 2022/23, rapeseed and sunflower imports are expected to almost return to pre-2022 levels in 2023/24, with potential increase for soybeans.

At the same time, EU exports could remain relatively stable. The EU's production of oilseed meals is expected to increase with respect 2022/2023 by 2.2%, limited by a decline in rapeseed meals (-5%).

Exports might improve (9%), especially of soymeals (34%), whereas imports of oilseed meals are expected to decrease slightly, mainly due to reduced rapeseed meals (-33%).

- European Commission