July 20, 2026
USDA cuts US wheat forecast to smallest harvest since 1970 as world ending stocks fall below analyst expectations
Corn ending stocks were also trimmed sharply below forecasts, while soybean production was revised slightly higher with stocks unchanged from June.
The United States Department of Agriculture has lowered its 2026/2027 US wheat production estimate to 1.536 billion bushels - the smallest US wheat harvest since the 1970/1971 marketing year - while world wheat ending stocks fell to 272.84 million bushels, below average analyst expectations of 273.17 million bushels.
The downward revision, published in the USDA's July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, reflects smaller planted acreage in Canada and drought damage to the US crop. The production figure came in above the average analyst estimate of 1.525 billion bushels but below the June forecast of 1.543 billion bushels.
Wheat futures had already rallied approximately 3% ahead of the report as traders reacted to signs of escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine, including disruptions to shipping in the Sea of Azov. Ukraine has struck Russian tankers in the waterway that connects with the Black Sea, and market participants raised the possibility of a closure to Azov traffic - a significant concern given both countries are major global wheat exporters.
In corn, the USDA lowered 2026/2027 US ending stocks to 1.79 billion bushels, falling well below average analyst expectations of 1.873 billion bushels, after tight quarterly stocks were reported in June. US corn production was revised slightly upward to 16 billion bushels from the June estimate of 15.995 billion bushels. Analysts said the tighter balance sheet made the corn market highly sensitive to weather outcomes for the remainder of the growing season.
US soybean production for 2026/2027 was pegged at 4.475 billion bushels, above both analyst expectations of 4.459 billion bushels and the June estimate of 4.435 billion bushels. Soybean ending stocks were unchanged from June at 310 million bushels, below the average analyst expectation of 330 million bushels.
- Reuters
