July 20, 2026
 

Corn, soybean and wheat futures rally on 17 July as Middle East tensions and Black Sea uncertainty lift grain markets

USDA flash sales of nearly 26 million bushels of soybeans to China and Mexico provided the strongest fundamental support, while wheat gained on Black Sea export risk.

Corn, soybean and wheat futures closed sharply higher on 17 July 2026 as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and continued uncertainty over Black Sea grain shipments drove renewed buying across agricultural commodity markets, with Brent crude surging above US$87 per barrel and lifting production and transport cost expectations across the supply chain.

Soybeans attracted the strongest buying interest after USDA confirmed flash sales totalling nearly 26 million bushels, including approximately 12.5 million bushels to China and 9.4 million bushels to Mexico for the 2026/27 marketing year. November soybean futures advanced to US$12.03 per bushel, with soybean oil gaining more than 3%. Brazil is forecast to harvest a record soybean crop of approximately 6.62 billion bushels this season, maintaining competitive pressure on US exports.

December corn futures settled at US$4.6750 per bushel, supported by weather concerns in the US Midwest and crop stress in Europe following extreme heat in France. Brazil's corn production outlook remains favourable, with forecaster Safras & Mercado projecting a 3.3% output increase to 5.71 billion bushels for the current season. Weekly US corn export sales of 24.7 million bushels were below market expectations.

Winter wheat posted the strongest percentage gains among major grains, with Chicago soft red winter futures advancing to US$6.8275 per bushel and Kansas City contracts rising 1-2%. Traders cited risks to Black Sea export flows involving Russia and Ukraine as the primary driver. France's soft wheat harvest was 92% complete as of mid-July, with 65% of the crop rated good-to-excellent, providing some supply-side reassurance.

Higher grain prices have direct implications for livestock feed costs across Asia, where corn and soybean meal account for the bulk of compound feed formulations. Market participants said continued geopolitical uncertainty and weather volatility were likely to keep grain markets sensitive to further developments in the weeks ahead.