July 19, 2024

 

Lower broiler, turkey outputs prompt USDA to cut forecast for 2024 US red meat, poultry production

 

 

The total US red meat and poultry production forecast for 2024 was lowered slightly from June to 107.54 billion pounds due to lower broiler and turkey production that more than offset higher beef and pork production, according to the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

 

Higher expected steer and heifer slaughter led the USDA to increase the 2024 beef production forecast to 26.66 billion pounds. Pork production was also raised, to 28.14 billion pounds, based on increased weights for the second half of the year.

 

Broiler production was lowered to 46.78 billion pounds due to lower Q2 slaughter data. Meanwhile, reduced expectations for the second half of the year led the USDA to lower its turkey production forecast to 5.21 billion pounds. The egg production forecast was left unchanged at 9.09 billion dozen.

 

For 2025, beef production was raised on higher expected steer and heifer slaughter, partially offset by lower cow slaughter.

 

Pork production was raised, reflecting stated producers' farrowing intentions for the second half of 2024 reported in the June Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report and expectations of modest growth in the first-half 2025 pig crop.

 

On the poultry side, the USDA lowered the 2025 broiler production forecast based on a slower rate of growth in first-quarter production. Turkey production was also lowered as expected weaker producer returns for the remainder of 2024 slow growth in 2025. The 2025 egg production forecast was left unchanged.

 

Concerning prices, the USDA raised both the 2024 and 2025 cattle price forecasts to US$186.86/cwt. and US$191.00/cwt., respectively, on recent price data and expectations that demand for fed cattle will remain firm.

 

Hog price forecasts for 2024 and 2025 were lowered to US$59.13/cwt. and US$59.00/cwt., respectively.

 

The broiler price forecast was lowered slightly for 2024 to US$1.27/pound. based on recent price data. The forecast for 2025 was left unchanged at US$1.26/pound. The turkey price forecast for 2024 was lowered to 95.7 cents/pound based on recent data while the 2025 price forecast was raised to $1.07/pound due to the expectation of tighter supplies.

 

The milk production forecast for 2024 was lowered from last month to 226.9 billion pounds, which the USDA said was based on slower growth in milk per cow more than offsetting higher cow numbers. The milk production forecast for 2025 was also reduced to 229.1 billion pounds due to slower growth in milk per cow.

 

The USDA raised the 2024 all milk price forecast to US$22.25/cwt. With tighter milk supplies, the stronger prices forecast for 2024 are expected to carry over into 2025. The 2025 all milk price forecast was raised to US$22.50/cwt.

- Beef Magazine