July 19, 2013

Global wheat crop seen to rise slightly this month

For 2013-14, world wheat production is projected to reach 697.8 million tonnes, up 1.9 million this month of which half of the increase is in the US, with foreign production up 1.0 million tonnes to 640.3 million.

Several major exporting countries had increased production prospects, namely, the EU, Australia, and the US, while a reduction of wheat production in Kazakhstan is partly offsetting.

Australia's wheat production is projected up 1.0 million tonnes this month to 25.5 million, partly based on increased area, up 0.1 million hectares to reach 13.7 million. Wheat has already been planted on about 95% of projected area. Timely June rains in some eastern and southern wheat-producing regions and better returns encouraged farmers to expand area planted for wheat, to the third highest level on record, partly at the expense of rapeseed. The same timely precipitation has also boosted soil moisture and supported crop establishment raising yield prospects slightly on the month.

Beginning this month with the addition of Croatia, the EU consists of 28 member countries. All data for the EU have been updated back to 1999-2000, and year-to-year comparisons are currently valid. Last month's (June) estimates are from the June World Agricultural supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) and do not include Croatia. When compared with the month of June, new information or data involving Croatia will carry a special note. Note that the changes involving Croatia integration into the EU do not affect the world and foreign production totals. As Croatia changes its status from being a separate entity to a part of the EU, its estimates are added to the EU numbers, and simultaneously deducted from the totals.

EU wheat production is projected to reach 138.6 million tonnes in 2013-14, up 1.2 million tonnes this month, the third largest crop on record. Note that Croatian wheat production included in this increase went from 0.8 to 0.9 million tonnes. This month's wheat yield prospects are increased for a number of countries in the central and south-eastern regions of the union (Romania, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Croatia) with the arrival of much needed warmer weather. Wheat production is also up in the UK, where area planted for wheat is estimated higher (late planting at the start of a cold spring) with a slightly lower projected yield. These increases more than offset reductions for France, Ireland, Spain, and Greece. Italian wheat production is also reduced slightly.

There is also a small increase in wheat yield and output in Moldova, where crop conditions are excellent, and in Kyrgyzstan which has a slightly higher reported wheat area.

Partly offsetting the above increases is the reduction of wheat production in Kazakhstan, down 0.5 million tonnes this month to 14.5 million. This reflects official numbers on planted area that turned out to be lower than expected by 0.8 million hectares.