July 18, 2023

 

USDA releases latest grain and oilseed estimates

 

 

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has recently released its latest grain and oilseed estimates.

 

According to the USDA, global corn production for the new 2023/24 season is expected to reach 1224.5 million tonnes (Mt), an increase of 6.4% compared to the 2022/23 season (1150.7Mt). US production is expected to reach 389.1Mt, up 11.6% compared to the previous season (348.8Mt), while China will increase its harvest by 1.0% to 280.0Mt.

 

The European Union is forecast to grow by 19.7% with 63.4Mt, while Ukraine, with 25Mt, will see a decrease of 7.4%.

 

Brazil's production is estimated at 129 Mt, representing a decrease of 3.0% compared to the previous season, while Argentina's crop is expected to reach 54Mt, an increase of 58.8% compared to the previous season.

 

Global corn exports are forecast to increase by 12.3%, from 176.6Mt in the 2022/23 season to 198.3Mt in this new season, with the US being the second-largest exporter of the grain, reaching 53.3Mt, an increase of 27.3% over the previous season.

 

The South American exportable supply is expected to increase significantly in Argentina, with an increase of 84.1% in this new season with 40.5Mt. Brazil is estimated at 55Mt, which represents a decrease of 1.8% compared to the previous season.

 

China is expected to import 23Mt of corn, an increase of 27.8% compared to the previous season (18.0Mt), while the EU is expected to reduce its imports by 2.0% with 24Mt.

 

Global ending stocks are expected to increase by 6.0% to 314.1Mt. In fact, for the US, stocks are expected to increase by 61.4%, while stocks in Brazil and China are expected to decrease by 16.3% and 0.5%, respectively.

 

Global soybean production for the 2023/24 season is forecast to increase by 9.6% compared to the previous season, from 369.7Mt to 405.3Mt.

 

Estimates for South American crops show an increase of 4.5% for Brazil, which would reach 163Mt, while Argentina is projected to increase by 92.0% with 48.0Mt.

 

Paraguay is expected to increase its production by 13.6% with respect to the 2022/23 season (8.8Mt), reaching a crop of 10Mt, thus returning to the levels that were usual until the 2020/21 season.

 

The USDA's recent report estimates a US crop of 117.0Mt, an increase of only 0.6% compared to the 2022/23 season when the crop reached 116.4Mt.

Export would be led by Brazil with 96.5Mt, growing by 2.7% compared to the previous season (94.0Mt), while the US would reach an export volume of 50.3Mt, a figure that represents a 6.6% decrease compared to the last harvest (53.9Mt).

 

Argentina is projected to export 4.6Mt, which would mean an increase of 21.1% with respect to the 2022/23 season (3.8Mt).

 

China is expected to import 99Mt, a volume similar to that of the previous season.

The soybean ending stocks are expected to increase by 17.6% globally to 121.0Mt, supported by increases in stocks in the US, Argentina and Brazil.

- Pig333