July 18, 2022


Higher oilseed production for China in 2022/23 period



China's total oilseed production is forecast at 63.4 million tonnes in marketing year (MY) 2022/23, up 4% from the previous year.


Government policies to incentivise oilseed production (particularly soybeans) and high prices for major oilseeds are the primary factors driving growth in area and production. China's soybean production for MY 2022/23 is forecast higher at 18.4 million tonnes on expanded planted area supported by high prices and government incentives.


The country's soybean imports for MY 2021/22 are revised downward to 94 million tonnes due to slower economic growth, high prices and COVID-19-related restrictions depressing meal and vegetable oil consumption. Soybean imports are forecast to recover to 98 million tonnes in MY 2022/23, driven by increased cost competitiveness of soybean meal compared to other protein-rich feed alternatives.


Swine and poultry producers have also reduced soybean meal inclusion rates in feed, driving down crush and demand for imported soybeans.


Soybean imports and soybean meal and vegetable oil consumption are forecast to rebound in MY 2022/23 as swine and poultry producers return to profitability and alternative feed inputs, particularly wheat, become less price competitive.



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