July 16, 2007

 

ASA weekly: July crop report highlights; US biodiesel production record large in May despite decline in margins; Brazil cuts output forecast; India expects increased soyoil imports; Solae to buy Cargill's isolated soy protein technology; Philippines approves use of 41 GM plants; Dupont closer to approval of optimum GAT

 

 

July crop report highlights
 

The USDA's July Crop Production and monthly WASDE reports were released last week. Changes in US supply/use fundamentals within the soybean complex were dominated by reduced production emanating from the previously reported acreage drop.

 

Additionally however, USDA's estimated 2007/08 usage was lowered 1.36 million tonnes with estimated exports lowered 1.63 million tonnes and estimated crush increased 272,000 tonnes. The larger crush was driven by increased domestic oil (non-biodiesel) and domestic meal usage estimates.

 

World soybean production for 2007/08 was forecast at 222.1 million tonnes, 14 million tonnes below 2006/07 and 3.3 million tonnes below last month. Reduced US production was responsible for the change from last month, according to USDA.

 

Biodiesel production record large in May despite decline in margins

 

The Census Bureau reported recently that a record 111,000 tonnes of soybean oil was used in the production of methyl esters (mostly biodiesel) during May. That represents a 13,200 tonnes increase from April usage, which was revised 5,440 tonnes higher to 97,500 tonnes.

 

This increase in biodiesel production from April to May was somewhat surprising given that it occurred amid a decline in margins to their lowest level since December. The Census Bureau also released its 2006 annual summary, in which total methyl ester usage of soybean oil was virtually unchanged for the 2005/06 marketing year, but was revised 17,200 tonnes lower to 228,000 tonnes for the October-November-December 2006 quarter.

 

At the end of June, the Census Bureau reported a May crush of 4.13 million tonnes, which was 152,000 tonnes more than last year and exceeded what the market had anticipated after the NOPA crush of 3.9 million tonnes implied a Census crush of about 4.08 million tonnes.

 

Although the crush was higher than anticipated, Census reported that soyoil stocks declined to 3.267 million pounds in May from 3.290 million pounds in April, which was somewhat surprising given that NOPA stocks increased by 22 million pounds during that time.

 

Brazil cuts output forecast

 

Brazil's census bureau (IBGE) reduced the total output estimate for the 2006/07 soybean crop by 0.4 percent to 58.2 million tonnes, citing weather problems in the north-eastern states. In its May estimate, IBGE put the crop at 58.5 million tonnes. The number is still in line with most market estimates of the 2006/07 crop now being sold. The crop was harvested in May.

 

India expects increased soyoil imports

 

India is expected to import about 200,000 tonnes of crude soyoil in June, up 54 percent from a year ago, an association of edible oils importers said last week.

 

"Soyoil imports will rise as after the recent rally in palm oil prices, it has become cheaper than palm oil," B.V. Mehta, executive director of Solvent Extractors' Association of India said.

 

Moreover, the effective import costs of soyoil are much less than palm because of repeated reductions in duties and freezing of the base import price. The base price is the rate at which import duties are calculated irrespective of the landing costs.

 

Crude palm oil imports are expected to be about 220,000 tonnes in the same month, down 8.3 percent from a year earlier, said Mehta. "About 70 percent of India's monthly edible oil requirements will have to be met from imports because of a drop in oilseeds production," Mehta said.

 

Solae to buy Cargill's isolated soy protein technology

 

Solae, a joint venture between DuPont and Bunge and the leading supplier of soy protein for food-based products, has completed the acquisition of Cargill's isolated soy protein Prolisse, including the patented membrane technology for processing it.

 

"The combination of Solae's isolated soy protein business and Cargill's Prolisse product line is a perfect fit," said Tony Arnold, chief executive and president of Solae. "We are committed to the soy ingredient industry and this investment will enable us to continue serving customers with quality and reliability."

 

Solae will consolidate Cargill's products and technology into an existing plant, hence ensuring reliability of supply. Financial terms were not disclosed.

 

Philippines approves use of 41 GM plants; Dupont closer to approval of optimum GAT

 

The Philippines has so far approved 41 varieties of genetically modified (GM) plants for use in the country, according to Clarito Barron, assistant director of the Bureau of Plant Industry (BPI).

 

Plant varieties that have been approved for direct use as food, feed and for processing are soybean, corn, rapeseed, potato, cotton, sugarbeet and alfalfa, Barron said at a news briefing.

 

In related news, Dupont has completed regulatory submissions for its Optimum GAT trait in soybeans and corn to the Food & Drug Administration and the USDA. Dupont said that it is on track to complete its submission to the Environmental Protection Agency later this year. DuPont plans to introduce soybean seeds containing the trait by 2009.

 

Optimum GAT is a glyphosate, ALS-tolerant trait that also has tolerance to herbicides designed to complement glyphosate by providing additional contact and residual control on grass and broadleaf weeds, giving growers the flexibility to tailor weed control programmes to local field conditions.

 

US & South America Soybean/Products Balance

United States

Argentina

Brazil

Actual

Estimate

Proj.

Actual

Estimate

Proj.

Actual

Estimate

Proj.

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

Soybeans

thousand tonnes

Carryin

3,059

6,960

12,229

2,434

514

579

3,598

1,638

2,252

Production

85,013

83,368

86,770

39,000

40,500

45,500

53,000

57,000

58,800

Imports

152

92

109

708

900

725

352

40

100

Crush

46,160

47,320

48,036

29,560

32,600

37,150

29,728

28,756

29,400

Exports

30,011

25,778

29,393

10,548

7,200

7,550

22,799

24,770

26,700

Other

5,093

5,093

4,951

1,520

1,535

1,516

2,785

2,900

2,974

Usage

81,264

78,191

82,380

41,628

41,335

46,216

55,312

56,426

59,074

Carryout

6,960

12,229

16,728

514

579

588

1,638

2,252

2,078

Soymeal

thousand tonnes

Carryin

191

156

285

564

671

564

841

640

894

Production

36,936

37,414

37,939

23,347

25,687

29,250

22,928

22,327

22,800

Domestic use

30,446

30,097

30,527

538

544

550

9,121

10,000

10,644

Net Exports

6,525

7,188

7,425

22,702

25,250

28,700

14,008

12,073

12,215

Usage

36,971

37,285

37,952

23,240

25,794

29,250

23,129

22,073

22,859

Carryout

156

285

272

671

564

564

640

894

835

Soybean oil

thousand tonnes

Carryin

488

771

1,370

91

35

32

293

248

250

Production

8,781

9,250

9,069

5,404

6,000

6,850

5,708

5,521

5,625

Domestic use

7,910

8,144

8,505

378

428

683

3,059

3,222

3,335

Net exports

588

507

667

5,082

5,575

6,166

2,694

2,297

2,292

Usage

8,498

8,651

9,172

5,460

6,003

6,849

5,753

5,519

5,627

Carryout

771

1,370

1,267

35

32

33

248

250

248

 

USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 05 July 2007

Country

Commodity

New

Accum.

 

Country

Commodity

New

Accum.

Sales

Exports

 

Sales

Exports

Barbados

Soybeans

2.3

22.1

 

Honduras

Soymeal

5.6

105.6

Canada

Soybeans

1.3

118.8

 

Japan

Soymeal

7.6

287.7

China

Soybeans

59.7

11010.4

 

Mexico

Soymeal

3.6

1055.6

Colombia

Soybeans

1.3

264.4

 

Salvador

Soymeal

6.7

93.1

Costa Rica

Soybeans

7.9

237.5

 

Saudi Arabia

Soymeal

2.1

80.4

Egypt

Soybeans

9

719.4

 

Venezuela

Soymeal

11.6

11.6

Mexico

Soybeans

69.2

3290.8

 

Algeria

Soyoil

11.5

31.3

Netherlands

Soybeans

9.3

1435.4

 

Guatemala

Soyoil

2.2

19.3

Philippines

Soybeans

9.9

63.2

 

Mexico

Soyoil

3.4

67.8

Taiwan

Soybeans

17.1

1635.6

 

Nicaragua

Soyoil

2.8

9.8

Belize

Soymeal

9

3

 

Salvador

Soyoil

0.5

9.7

Bulgaria

Soymeal

10

6.6

 

Export Sales Totals (tmt)

Canada

Soymeal

4.6

1019.5

 

Commodity

Outstanding

Accum.

New

Colombia

Soymeal

10.6

237.1

 

Sales

Exports

Sales

FW Ind

Soymeal

1

10.6

 

Soybeans

2,147.40

28,002.10

145

Guatemala

Soymeal

1.3

250.9

 

Soymeal

1,295.10

5,187.20

41

Guyana

Soymeal

1.1

10.8

 

Soyoil

87.3

417.9

9.3

 

Video >

Follow Us

FacebookTwitterLinkedIn