July 14, 2010

US sees lower feed grain production

Feed grain production for the US is expected to be down from last month, reflecting lower planted acreage, according to a report from USDA's Economic Research Service released Tuesday (July 13).

Feed grain production is projected up from 2009 as planted and harvested area are up from last year for corn, more than offsetting year-to-year reductions for sorghum, barley, and oats.

Adjustments are made in 2009/2010 use this month to reflect June 1 stocks. The resulting changes lower 2009/2010 ending stocks and 2010/11 supplies. Forecast 2010/2011 prices for all four feed grains are raised this month, as feed grain ending stocks are projected lower.

US corn exports for 2010/11 are decreased based on stronger US prices. Foreign coarse grain ending stocks for 2010/2011 are down slightly more than US stocks, mostly due to reduced barley production prospects. During 2010/2011, world coarse grain stocks are projected to decline 5%.

US feed grain production in 2010/2011 is projected at 350.6 million tonnes, down 3.5 million tonnes from a month ago and up 1.6 million from 2009. The June 30 Acreage report showed planted acres decreased from earlier intentions for all four feed grains.

Corn is projected to account for 92% of total grain feed and residual use, down from a forecast 93% in 2009/2010.

Pork production in 2011 is expected to increase 2% from the 22.3 billion pounds expected in 2010. Hog farmers responding to the June 2010 survey intend to have 2.89 million sows farrow during the June-August 2010 quarter, down 2% from the actual farrowings during the same period in 2009 and down 6% from 2008.

Intended farrowings for September-November 2010, at 2.90 million sows, are down 1% from 2009 and down 4% from 2008. However, continued gains in pigs per litter result in larger supplies of slaughter hogs in 2011.