July 14, 2004

China's 2004/05 Wheat Crop Revised Upward
 

China's 2004/05 wheat production is estimated at 87.0 million tons, up 2.0 million or 2 percent from last month and up 1 percent from last year, according to USDA. Wheat area is estimated at 21.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month but down 0.5 million or 2 percent from last year and the lowest area on record. Winter wheat accounts for about 93 percent of total wheat area and production.

According to area surveys by the Ministry of Agriculture and other government sources, winter wheat area dropped by an estimated 2 to 5 percent in 2004. Spring wheat area is also forecast lower in 2004/05 due to relatively low expected profitability this year. The estimated yield was raised this month to 4.05 tons per hectare, up 3 percent from last year and just below the record of 4.10 tons per hectare set in 1997/98. In May, the Ministry of Agriculture announced that winter-wheat production in 2004/05 might be 2.5 million tons higher than last year despite lower planted area.

Wheat production in Henan, China's largest wheat-producing province, reportedly increased by almost 1 million tons this year due to higher planted area and excellent yields. This outcome was achieved despite delays, reports of pest damage, and below-normal spring rainfall in some areas.

Bumper crops were also reported in Shandong and Hebei provinces. These three provinces account for about 50 percent of China's total wheat production. Warm and dry weather in May and early June on the North China Plain were ideal for harvesting, which is now complete. Spring wheat is in the filling/maturing stage. Conditions have been drier than normal this year and yields may have been affected.