July 13, 2022

USDA projections expect lower US pork production this year

Most recent projections by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) have expected US pork production in 2022 to be down by about 1.6% from a year earlier, with 2023 production up about a half of a percent.

Almost every number in the USDA's most recent Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report was down from a year ago, but by only 1% or less. The spring quarter pig number, at 32.9 million head, was down 1% from the same March through May period a year ago. Likewise, sows farrowed during that same period were down 1%.

The breeding inventory as of June 1 was about 6.2 million head down, a decrease of 1%, and the total June 1 inventory of all hogs and pigs, at 72.5 million head, was down from last year by 1%.

As for production over the next year, the report said producers intend to have just over three million sows farrow during the summer quarter and about the same for the fall quarter, with both figures 1% below a year ago.

"The watchword is probably uncertainty," said USDA livestock analyst Shayle Shagam. "Uncertainties in terms of grain prices, in terms of demand in this economy for pork, which would obviously then translate into demand for hogs.

"The report would indicate a little bit of a negative tint in the sense that we're not looking at any expansions and farrowing intentions. They didn't expand farrowings but nor did they show really significant levels of contraction."

According to Shagam, the most recent USDA projections have 2022 pork production down about 1.6% from a year earlier, with 2023 production up about a half of a percent.

As to the forecast for hog prices, Shagam said the USDA expects average prices for the national base lean price used as a marker on a live equivalent basis being about US$71 a hundredweight in 2022, compared to about US$67/cwt in 2021, and then remaining fairly steady at about US$71/cwt in 2023.

With a steady outlook for production and prices, Shagam opined "the industry is taking a very measured approach".

- USDA