July 13, 2004



USDA Lowers US Soy Export Forecast, Sees Higher Foreign Exports

The U.S. Department of Agriculture said Monday in its monthly supply and demand report that the U.S. will be exporting less soybeans than previously expected, but foreign competitors will be exporting more.
The USDA said in the report that weaker U.S. exports "reflected reduced Canadian import demand and increased competition from South America."
The forecast for U.S. soybean exports is now 1.050 billion bushels, a 15-million-bushel decrease from the 1.065 billion bushels predicted by the USDA a month ago.
The USDA also lowered forecasts in July for 2004-05 soy production, crush and ending stocks. The U.S. crop is now predicted to reach just 2.94 billion bushels, 25 million less than was expected last month. Crush is now forecast to total 1.645 billion bushels, down from 1.65 billion bushels. The 2004-05 ending stocks were lowered to 210 million bushels, a 10-million-bushel drop.
The 2004-05 crush forecast may have been lowered, but the USDA said in the Monday report that it also raised its estimate for the 2003-04 crush by 25 million bushels. The USDA said, "The increase reflects higher-than-expected domestic soybean meal use through the end of the third quarter as returns to livestock production remain favorable."
On 2004-05 exports, The USDA said that despite the decrease made Monday for U.S. soybeans, foreign exports are expected stronger. The USDA raised the forecast for non-U.S. soybean exports to 37.76 million metric tons, up from the 37.38 million predicted in June. Argentina and Brazil were two of the countries seen with stronger exports.

Source: USDA