July 11, 2025

Brazil faces challenging corn export season amid bumper crop harvest

Brazil's corn exports may face obstacles this year as the shipping season starts with possible logistics issues—China making fewer purchases as well as strong competition expected from the United States, analysts told Reuters.

Corn exports for 2024/25 are set to increase in volume, they said, but could face bottlenecks as they will have to compete for space in ports if China's demand for Brazil's record soybean crop remains firm in the second half of 2025.

Brazil's corn production this season is expected to total 128.3 million metric tonnes, according to government projections, an 11% jump from the previous season cycle.

Consultancy StoneX estimates Brazilian exports at 42 million tonnes, exceeding last season's 38.5 million tonnes.

China, a large buyer of Brazilian corn in 2022 and 2023, needs fewer imports after a bumper harvest, said StoneX analyst Raphael Bulascoschi, adding that the US could also have a record crop, competing with Brazil in external markets.

"We have an exportable surplus, but we will need to find buyers," Bulascoschi said.

Brazil's shipments will have to rely on demand from countries like Iran, Egypt and Vietnam, Itau BBA analyst Francisco Queiroz said. He noted, however, that they do not have the same volume capacity as China.

-      Reuters