July 11, 2023

Mostly flat for Russian wheat's export prices last week

Export prices for Russian wheat remained largely flat last week, analysts said, as traders waited for signals about the Black Sea grain export deal ahead of its renewal deadline next Monday.

The deal, brokered by the United Nations and Turkey last July, aimed to prevent a global food crisis by allowing Ukrainian grain blockaded by the war in Ukraine to be safely exported from Black Sea ports. It will expire on July 17 if Russia objects to its renewal. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said earlier that he will discuss extending the deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin, but the Kremlin said it was not known when Putin might visit Turkey.

"The grain corridor is almost at a halt currently," the Sovecon consultancy said in a note. "There have been no inbound vessel inspections since June 28. Outbound vessels are still passing clearance in the Bosporus."

According to the IKAR agriculture consultancy, the price of 12.5% protein Russian wheat scheduled for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in early August was US$231 a tonne at the end of last week, slightly down from US$232 a tonne the week before.

Russia plans to export up to 55 million tonnes of grain in the agricultural year that began this month, after exporting around 60 million tonnes last year, Russian Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev said on July 7.

Sovecon recently raised its forecast for Russian grain exports in the 2023/24 season to 58.9 million tonnes from 57.2 million tonnes, and raised its wheat export forecast to 47.2 million tonnes from 45.7 million tonnes.

- Reuters