July 11, 2023

European meat consumption to decline as rest of the world ramps up production, report finds

According to the latest Agricultural Outlook 2023-32 report by the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), trends in Europe indicate a projected drop in meat consumption and production in the region over the next decade, while the rest of the world is expected to increase its outputs, Agriland reported.

The report reveals that global meat exports are forecasted to rise by 3% by 2032, while exports from the European Union (EU) are expected to decrease by 16% during the same period. This shift in the European market is driven by changing consumer preferences towards "leaner and allegedly more environmentally friendly alternatives" such as poultry and fish.

It is estimated that about two-thirds of meat will be consumed by one-third of the world's population in 2032, with high per capita use in high-income countries playing a significant role. Although per capita meat consumption is relatively low in countries like China, their large population sizes contribute to substantial total meat consumption.

In Europe, the poultry meat industry is expected to thrive in the medium-term due to its improved profitability resulting from shorter production cycles. But the beef production sector will face challenges in meeting stricter environmental sustainability standards, which may impact the profitability of intensive production models. The report suggests that mounting environmental and health concerns could lead to changes in European preferences for red meat, such as beef.

Despite these shifts, animal-based protein is projected to remain the dominant source of protein consumption in high-income regions like North America, Europe, and Central Asia.

The report highlights that pork production in Europe is expected to decline due to stricter environmental regulations and animal welfare standards. On the other hand, sheep meat production is projected to contribute only 6% to the overall growth in meat production, with a 15% expansion expected over the next decade.

By 2032, meat products in the EU are predicted to constitute 24% of total protein availability, despite a modest decline in consumption. The European and central Asian regions are major contributors to global livestock product exports, with almost 90% of these volumes coming from the EU. However, meat exports from the EU are expected to decline by 16% over the next 10 years, primarily driven by reduced pork production. Poultry and bovine meat exports, on the other hand, are projected to remain stable.

Although there will be minor declines in pork, bovine, and ovine meat consumption, rising poultry intake is expected to partially offset these declines, with poultry accounting for almost 30% of total meat consumption by 2032, as stated in the report.

-      Agriland