July 10, 2006

US beef sales to Japan may not rise much on trade resumption

US beef marketers and analysts say a trade deal with Japan that reopens its markets to US beef products would be good for the US industry, but the volume of sales probably would not be large.

Trade sources said consumer demand has shifted since Japanese officials halted further US beef imports in January after a shipment of veal was found with spinal bone pieces attached. Surveys show a significant percentage of consumers no longer want US beef, and winning the market back will take time and effort, the said.

Even the US Meat Export Federation (USMEF), the organisation devoted to marketing US meat products abroad, has modest hopes.

Assuming the first shipments leave US shores on Aug 1, USMEF economists project only 25,000 to 30,000 tonnes of product will ship in 2006, said Cheryl Kamenski, manager of media communications for the USMEF.

For comparison, a chart on the USMEF website lists US beef and beef variety meat exports to Japan in 2002 at 332,204 tonnes, with a value of US$1.028 billion.

Kamenski said the products sold initially are likely to be a mix of beef variety meats destined for retail sale and steak products going to the restaurant trade.

The USMEF is keeping its estimate of initial beef trade low because Japan has said it planned to inspect every box of US product it imports to make sure it all meets the trade-agreement guidelines, and the added cost could discourage trade, Kamenski said.