July 9, 2012

 

US 2012 corn yield outlook down

 

 

US 2012 corn yield estimate has been slashed by analytical firm Informa Economics to 153.5 bushels per acre from its previous figure of 154.9 in late June, the firm said on Friday (July 6) in a note to clients.

 

It calculated US corn production at 13.641 billion bushels, compared with its June 29 estimate of 13.76 billion. US corn and soy crops have been hurt by hot, dry weather this summer, USDA and analysts have said.

 

Informa officials had no comment on the figures but in a copy of the note obtained by Reuters, the firm noted above-normal temperatures in June and well below-normal rainfall totals.

 

"July state yield forecasts were reduced in nearly 20 states from Informa's early season trend with Kansas reduced the most, down 30 bushels," Informa's note said.

 

The firm's corn estimates were below the USDA's current forecasts for a crop of 14.790 billion bushels based on a record-high yield of 166 bushels per acre.

 

USDA revised its 2012 US acreage estimates last week and the government was scheduled to issue updated crop production and yield estimates on July 11.

 

Informa lowered its estimate of the US 2012 soy yield to 42.0 bushels per acre, from its previous estimate of 42.7. It estimated soy production at 3.161 billion bushels, compared with its June 29 estimate of 3.21 billion.

 

USDA currently projects the soy crop at 3.205 billion bushels based on an average yield of 43.9 bushels per acre.

 

"Informa lowered its (soy) yield forecast for several states due to this season's below-average start," the firm said.

 

"Conditions have been notably dry and warm in the Eastern Corn Belt as well as the southern part of the Western Corn Belt. The Mid-South also has been dry and warm, stressing soy especially in Tennessee," the firm said.

 

Informa trimmed its estimate for US all-wheat production for 2012 to 2.287 billion bushels from 2.310 billion a month earlier. The firm estimated production of US winter wheat at 1.697 billion bushels, up 13 million from a month ago. It pegged hard red winter wheat production at 1.033 billion bushels, soft red winter wheat at 431 million and white winter wheat at 233 million. It estimated US 2012 spring wheat production, other than durum, at 500 million bushels, with an average yield of 42.8 bushels per acre.

 

"Spring wheat condition had been rated in line with average during June, however, the crop condition declined sharply at the beginning of July to a level that was below average and lower than the last three years," the firm said.

 

Informa projected US production of durum wheat at 89 million bushels. USDA currently forecasts US 2012 all-wheat production at 2.234 billion bushels. The government is expected to release its first forecasts for production of durum and "other spring" wheat as part of its July 11 crop reports.