July 7, 2025

  

Cautious outlook in Thai meat producers amid near cycle peak swine prices

 

 

The Thailand meat industry may be approaching an inflection point as data suggests the late-stage swine price, according to financial analyst firm KGI Securities.

 

Domestic swine prices, currently ranging between ฿85-฿88 (US$2.63 – US$2.72) per kilogramme (kg) are projected to hold steady or edge up slightly over the next several months before weakening as new supply comes online. In Vietnam, a similar trajectory is expected, with the recent surge in pork prices potentially giving way to stabilisation or modest pullback.

 

Thailand's second quarter domestic swine prices averaged ฿86/kg (US$2.66), up 25% from a year earlier and 9% compared to the previous quarter. In Vietnam, pork prices climbed 8% year-on-year and 4% on a quarterly basis, coming in at ₫67,884/kg.

 

The story is different for poultry, with Thai broiler prices remaining stable at ฿40/kg (US$1.24)—a 9% year-on-year decline and 1% drop quarter-on-quarter as balanced supply and demand keep the market in check. Export growth for chicken is expected to ease, given last year's high base.

 

In contrast to robust meat prices, feed costs have offered some relief. Imported soybean meal prices tumbled 24% year-on-year in the second quarter, reaching ฿16.1/kg (US$0.50)  while domestic corn hovered at ฿10.85/ kg(US$0.34), slightly lower than the previous year.

 

Abundant supply underpins these lower input costs, and meat producers—who typically keep several months' feed on hand—are poised to benefit from this environment well into 2025.

 

Turning to company performance, the analyst noted that the earnings outlook remains nuanced. Meat processors with exposure to pork such as Betagro (BTG) and Thaifoods Group (TFG)  are well-positioned to capitalise on the strong price environment in 2025, before momentum is expected to fade in 2026 as prices soften.

 

TFG's expanding retail presence could help buffer some of this decline, while Genaral Foods Poultry Thai (GPFT) is projected to see moderate profit growth driven by continued favourable feed prices and a near-term recovery in chicken exports.

 

Following these, KGI Securities maintains a "Neutral" rating on food sector, flagging swine prices, sluggish poultry export growth and macroeconomic headwinds. Moreover, recommendations remain "Neutral" for GFPT and TFG, with respective 1H26 target prices of ฿9.70 (US$0.30) and ฿5.00 (US$0.15) per share.

 

However, Betagro is rated "Underperform"  with a THB15.70 target price, reflecting its substantial pork exposure and vulnerability to the coming downturn in meat prices. With shares in the sector reflecting recent trends, the analyst suggests investors monitor meat price movements closely for further cues.

 

-      Kaohoon International