July 4, 2007

US 2007/08 soybean harvest seen to reduce to 72.40 million tonnes

The US September 2007/August 2008 season soybean harvest is seen to drop to 72.40 million tonnes from 86.77 million tonnes in 2006/07, Germany's oilseeds analysts Oil World said.

The figures are lower by 5.2 million tonnes from the previous estimate, following last week's report by the US Department of Agriculture stating a bigger-than-expected swing in US plantings from soybeans to corn for biofuels.

Oil World said soybeans will have difficulty in repeating the above-average yields in the past two years due to massive shift of corn planting.

Despite the lower-than-expected crop, Oil World has raised its forecast of US 2007/08 crushings to 50.0 million tonnes from an estimated 48.70 million tonnes in 2006/07.

The firm said a further increase is expected for US soybean crushings to satisfy demand for soyoil and soymeal.

The low soybean acreage will also tighten US supplies and world balances of soybeans.

It forecasts US soybean stocks at end-August 2007 at 15.60 million tonnes, up from 12.23 million tonnes at end-August 2006.

But the reduced crop coupled with high demand means US end-August 2008 soybean stocks are forecast to fall to 5.0 million tonnes, it said.