July 3, 2020


US farmers cut one billion bushels from 2020 corn crop estimate



US farmers effectively slashed the 2020 corn crop forecast and planted less than one billion bushels from what they had planned in early spring, USDA data showed on Tuesday, Successful Farming reported.


Factors affecting the forecast were trade war, the pandemic and a bit of bad weather.


"This was a huge acreage shock," the biggest decline for corn intentions in nearly 40 years, said economist Scott Irwin, who pointed to the extraordinary economic volatility created by the coronavirus.


Instead of the first-ever 16 billion-bushel crop, growers will harvest a more manageable 15 billion bushels of corn, assuming yields match USDA projections. It would be the second-largest corn crop on record but the corn stockpile would be half-a-billion bushels smaller than earlier feared and the farm-gate price for this year's crop would average US$3.40 a bushel, US$0.20 higher than forecast by USDA, said Irwin and Todd Hubbs, both of the University of Illinois.


Growers seeded 92 million acres of corn and 83.8 million acres of soybeans, according to a USDA survey of 70,900 farmers in early June. Corn plantings were down by five million acres from USDA's March survey. Soybeans usually are the Farm Belt alternative to corn, but soy acreage was only 300,000 acres larger than March intentions, a much smaller rise than traders expected.


Corn and soybeans are the two most widely grown crops in the country and account from more than half of the land planted to the two dozen principal crops, from feed grains and cotton to millet, potatoes, and chickpeas. Much of the five million acres that dropped out of corn probably will be reported later as prevent-plant land where floods, spring rains, or late harvests kept farmers out of the field, said analysts.


"Part of that can be blamed on low prices and in some cases, on weather or flooding issues," said Pat Westhoff, director of the FAPRI think tank at the University of Missouri. In addition, cropland in North Dakota is two million acres smaller than in 2018. A rainy spring disrupted planting throughout the Farm Belt in 2019, and early winter storms prolonged the fall harvest into this spring in parts of the upper Midwest and northern Plains.


With growers holding the line on soybean production, this year's crop would sell for an average US$8.45 a bushel, said Irwin and Hubbs during a webinar, compared with USDA estimates of US$8.20. The crop would total 2.13 to 2.15 billion bushels, the fourth largest on record, but the US stockpile would continue to decline after reaching a record 909 million bushels in August 2019.


"We didn't need 97 million acres" of corn, said Hubbs, referring to repeated warnings of price-depressing stockpiles if farmers followed their March plans for a dramatic expansion of corn plantings following 2019's weather delays.


Demand for corn ethanol plummeted this spring as stay-at-home orders and the economic slowdown that accompanied the coronavirus slashed gasoline consumption. The USDA estimates 4.9 billion bushels of the 2019 corn crop will be used in making ethanol, a drop of nearly 450 million bushels from the 2018 crop. Corn-for-ethanol is forecast to recover to 5.2 billion bushels of this year's crop.


The USDA forecast of a season-average price of US$3.20 a bushel for this year's corn crop would be the lowest in 14 years. At US$8.20 a bushel, the estimated season-average soybean price would be the lowest in 13 years.


Crop and livestock revenue is forecast to drop by US$20 billion this year due to the low prices from the trade war and the pandemic. The USDA has disbursed nearly US$4.9 billion in aid to producers from a US$16 billion coronavirus relief fund.


In the quarterly Grain Stocks report also released on Wednesday, the USDA said the corn stockpile was nearly the same size as a year ago at 5.22 billion bushels, some 273 million bushels larger than traders expected. Soybean stocks of 1.37 billion bushels and wheat stocks of 1.04 billion bushels were in line with expectations.