July 2, 2026

 

Beef production in Australia at record highs, data shows

 

 

Australian beef production is currently at "record highs", according to the latest data from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB).

 

According to the report, Australian beef prices are forecast to remain firm into the middle of the year, with the average deadweight price for the week ending June 12 standing at £5.09/kg (US$6.97).

 

"Australian beef production was up 8% year-on-year for the Q1 (January–March) period, totalling just over 730,000 tonnes," the AHDB said.

 

"This is the highest quarterly beef production on record.

 

"Output has been underpinned by growth in slaughter numbers and carcase weights, supported by improved pasture conditions and a high grain-fed turnoff rate."

 

According to the AHDB, the latest forecasts from Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA) show beef production peaking at 2.9 million tonnes in 2026, representing a 4.1% increase from the previous year.

 

However, as the Australian cattle cycle reaches its peak and the national herd moves into a retention phase, beef production is expected to contract in 2027 and 2028 following the recent liquidation period.

 

The national female slaughter rate rose to 53% during the first three months of 2026. While this was below recent peaks, it still reflected ongoing herd contraction.

 

Despite this, the AHDB noted that overall production is expected to remain at "historically high" levels.

 

It added that the development of El Niño weather patterns will be an important factor influencing slaughter rates, given Australia's large cattle inventory.

 

Extended dry conditions could result in more cattle being marketed.

 

Australian beef exports increased by 16% during the first quarter compared with a year earlier, "bolstered by increased exports to the United States, China, and South Korea among others", the AHDB said.

 

Exports to China rose 32% year-on-year, with the Chinese government reporting on June 1 that Australia had already utilised 90% of its 205,000-tonne safeguard quota. Once that quota is filled, a 55% tariff applies.

 

Australia is also expected to reach its South Korean beef safeguard quota earlier than in previous years, after which a 24% tariff will apply.

 

The current quota situation could mean more Australian beef will need to find alternative global markets later in the year.

 

According to the AHDB, MLA forecasts beef exports will increase by 1.4% to 1.57 million tonnes by the end of 2026, driven by strong global demand for lean beef, particularly in the US lean minced beef market.

 

US beef imports rose 15% during the first quarter of 2026, with Australia accounting for the largest share of those imports.

 

During the first quarter of 2026, the United Kingdom ranked as Australia's eleventh-largest export market for beef, importing just under 4,500 tonnes.

 

Like many other countries, Australia has also been affected by conflict in the Middle East, which has increased fuel and fertiliser costs for beef producers.

 

The AHDB added that live cattle exports have fallen 27% as shipping disruptions to the region continue.

 

While Australian beef prices continue to be supported by a tight global market, exports remain "competitive", according to the AHDB.

 

It described the rapid pace at which Australian exporters are filling the Chinese and South Korean safeguard quotas as a "watchpoint for global markets (including the UK) in the second half of the year".

 

For the UK, Australia is currently not fully utilising its beef quota under the Australia–UK Free Trade Agreement, although "volumes are small but rising quickly", the report said.

 

Imports of Australian beef into the UK increased by 153% year-on-year during the first quarter, making Australia the UK's fifth-largest supplier of beef (including offal) and the third-largest supplier of fresh and frozen beef alone.

 

Although Australia still has technical quota capacity to expand shipments to the UK, the AHDB noted that other commercial considerations remain important.

 

It said:"Firstly, the UK is a relatively small market for Australian beef, making up 1% of exports in Q1 this year, up from 0.5% in Q1 2025.

 

"While demand persists from more dominant (US) or closer (China and wider Asia) global markets, these will likely continue to be prioritised.

 

"However, geopolitics and quota limits are, of course, key watchpoints here."

- Agriland