July 1, 2025

FAO: Global wheat production in 2025 is forecast at 800.1 million tonnes

Global wheat production in 2025 is forecast at 800.1 million tonnes, representing a marginal 0.3 % increase from the previous season, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO).

Most of the forecasted increase is expected in the European Union, with smaller upturns anticipated in Argentina, India and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. These increases are expected to offset production declines foreseen in several other major producing countries, including Australia, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Ukraine and the United States of America.

Global wheat utilisation is anticipated to rise in 2025/26 by 1.3 % to 805.4 million tonnes. The strongest growth is foreseen in the feed use and other non-food uses, mostly in China (mainland) and the United States, respectively. Global food consumption of wheat is also anticipated to rise in line with population growth. World wheat stocks are predicted to contract by 2.2 % from their opening levels, down to 310.0 million tonnes by the close of the seasons in 2026. Based on current production and utilisation forecasts, the world wheat stocks-to-use ratio is expected to fall to 38.1 %, down from 39.3 % in 2024/25, yet still indicative of an overall comfortable supply situation. The largest stock drawdowns are anticipated in the Russian

Federation, with smaller declines expected in Argentina, the European Union, Pakistan, and several other countries.

After a sharp decline in 2024/25, world trade in wheat is forecast to partially recover in 2025/26 (July/June) to 200.6 million tonnes. The anticipated rebound is anticipated to be driven by stronger import demand from Asia, mainly from China and Turkey, along with increased exports from Argentina, the European Union and the Russian Federation.

World wheat prices are starting the 2025/26 season below their year-earlier and past five-year average levels.

An anticipated increase in import demand, coupled with stock drawdowns expected in several major exporting countries, could lend some support to wheat prices in 2025/26 amid an overall bearish market tone. However, much will depend on trade policy developments that have affected market sentiment at the close of 2024/25.

-      Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO)