July 1, 2004



IGC Ups 2004-05 World Wheat Output By 3 Million MT To 602 Million MT

Following is the updated world grain supply and demand forecast from the International Grains Council in its June monthly market review, released Wednesday.
All figures are in millions of metric tons.
FOR 2004-05:
                        June     Change from     Change
                         estimate  May estimate  from 03-04
Wheat output            602           3          8.66%
Wheat trade             100           1          Unch%
Wheat use                603           1          2.55%
Wheat stocks            129           5         -0.77%
  Major exporters -a   46          -3          9.52%
Coarse grain output   942           4          3.86%
Coarse grain trade    102           1         -1.92%
Coarse grain use      949           4          0.96%
Coarse grain stocks   123        Unch       -6.11%
  Major exporters -a   49        Unch         2.08%
FOR 2003-04
                         June     Change from     Change
                        estimate  May estimate  from 02-03
Wheat output            554           1         -2.12%
Wheat trade              100        Unch         -4.76%
Wheat use                588          -1         -1.84%
Wheat stocks            130           2        -20.73%
  Major exporters -a   42        Unch          7.69%
Coarse grain output   907           1          2.12%
Coarse grain trade    104        Unch         -0.95%
Coarse grain use      940        Unch          3.64%
Coarse grain stocks   131          1         -29.57%
  Major exporters -a   48        Unch        -15.79%
a = Stocks held by major exporters (the European Union, the U.S., Australia, Canada and Argentina).
The IGC upped its estimate for 2004-05 world wheat output to 602 million tons for its June report, 3 million tons higher than for the May forecast. This is an increase of 8.66% on the year. "There are no countries that are outstanding in terms of higher production, it's a slight increase in an number of countries this month," an IGC official said.
For its world coarse grain output, the IGC increased its estimate by 4 million tons to 942 million tons, up 3.86% on the year, the official said. "This is mainly due to lots of rain in the U.S. being considered beneficial to the maize (corn) crop," he said.
Higher output will be absorbed by higher consumption of corn in the U.S. partly for ethanol production and partly for animal production, he added.
World coarse grain 2004-05 consumption is pegged at a record 949 million tons, up 4 million tons again on the month and 9 million tons more than in 2003-04, the IGC said.
The IGC also published statistics on 2004-05 world coarse grain trade, which is seen unchanged on the month at 102 million tons, but still down 1.92% on the year.
World coarse grain stocks for 2004-05 are estimated at 123 million tons, unchanged on the month, but down 6.11% on the year.
Stocks held by the five major exporters E.U.-25, the U.S., Australia, Canada and Argentina amount to 49 million tons, up 2.08% on the year.
Estimated world wheat trade has been increased by 1 million tons to 100 million tons this month, but this is still close to last year's five-year low of 99 million tons.
World wheat consumption in 2004-05 has been upped by 1 million tons on the month at 603 million tons, which is up from 588 million tons consumed last year.
This leaves world wheat stocks for 2004-05 at 129 million tons, up 5 million tons since May and down 0.77% on the year, the IGC said.
For the 2003-04 marketing year, world wheat production has risen by 1 million tons to 554 million tons and down 12 million tons from the 566 million tons harvested in 2002-03.
World wheat consumption in 2003-04 is seen down 1 million tons on the month at 588 million tons, down 1.84% on the year.
World wheat trade in 2003-04 is forecast unchanged on the month at 100 million tons, down 4.76% on the year.
Estimated world wheat stocks in 2003-04 have gone up by 2 million tons since May to 130 million tons, which is down 20.73% on the year.
Meantime, stocks of the five major exporters have been left unchanged since last month at 42 million tons, up 7.69% on the year. This figure now includes the new 10 E.U. member states.
World coarse grain production in 2003-04 is up 1 million tons since May at 907 million tons, up 2.83% on the year, the IGC said.
World coarse grain consumption in 2003-04 is seen unchanged at 940 million tons up 3.64% on the year.
World coarse grain trade in 2003-04 is estimated at 104 million tons, unchanged on the month and down 0.95% on the year, while world stocks are pegged at 131 million tons, up 1 million tons since the May report.