June 30, 2010

Russia's grain production may not fall as far as some analysts have predicted, considering the better quality of crops compared with a year ago, according to US farm officials.

USDA attaches in Moscow cut by three million tonnes their estimate for Russia's grain crop, following the lead of many other observers who have noted higher-than-expected rates of winterkill, some dryness and lower spring plantings.

Winter crops had suffered a lack of moisture in some Volga Valley and Central European provinces, the attaches said in a report.

However, at 92 million tonnes, their revised estimate remains above that of Russia's farm ministry, which last month slashed its estimate by seven million tonnes to 90 million tonnes, and the analysis group SovEcon has pegged the crop at 84-89 million tonnes.

The relatively upbeat forecast reflected hopes that the autumn-sown crops will not decrease dramatically from last year, when Russia harvested a total of 97 million tonnes of grain.

"For many farmers, grain production still remains the major source of income, and they will do their best to harvest as much as possible," the report said.

Furthermore, early reports from southern provinces, where growers have begun the harvest a week earlier than normal, indicate the crops are in good condition.